美银：大幅提升年中油价预测为70美元

    中国石化新闻网讯 据2月24日今日油价报道，美国银行(Bank of America)本周表示，布伦特(Brent)原油价格可能在2021年第二季度达到每桶70美元，而今年的平均价格将达到每桶60美元，该银行还将其平均价格预期从此前的预测上调了每桶10美元。

    主要经济体的宽松货币政策，以及欧佩克+减产和德州严寒天气导致的石油供应紧张，是美国银行调高今年这两个基准价格预测的关键因素。布伦特原油今年的平均价格预计为每桶60美元，而美国基准WTI原油2021年的平均价格预计为每桶57美元。

    美国银行在周一发布的一份报告中称："过去一周德州的严重冰冻灾害应会使全球库存再减少5000万桶，进一步支撑油价。"

    美国东部时间周二上午9:35，油价回吐早盘涨幅，不过WTI原油价格仍高于每桶61美元，布伦特原油价格仍高于每桶65美元。

    油价周一飙升，原因是美国石油生产在德州严寒危机中缓慢恢复，分析师提高了他们的预测，预计市场将趋紧，而油价因预期库存减少而上涨更快。

    与美国银行类似，摩根士丹利也预计布伦特原油今年将触及每桶70美元的关口，预计第三季度市场将大幅改善，包括需求方面。

    周日，高盛开始上调投行对油价的预测，预计布伦特(Brent)原油价格将在今年第三季度达到每桶75美元，原因是市场加速再平衡、预期库存下降，以及交易员对冲通胀风险。

    高盛预计，布伦特原油价格将在今年第二季度达到每桶70美元的关口，在第三季度达到每桶75美元。因此，高盛将第二季度和第三季度的油价预测上调了每桶10美元。

    王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

    原文如下：

    Bank Of America Sees $70 Oil By Summer

    Brent Crude prices could hit $70 a barrel in the second quarter of 2021, while they are set to average $60 this year, Bank of America said this week, raising its average price outlook by $10 a barrel from its previous projection.

    Easy monetary policy in major economies, as well as tighter oil supply due to the OPEC+ production cuts and the Texas Freeze, are the key drivers of Bank of America Global Research’s increased price forecasts for both benchmarks this year. While Brent Crude is seen averaging $60 throughout this year, the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $57 in 2021.

    “The big Texas freeze in the past week should reduce global inventories by an additional 50 million barrels, further supporting (oil) prices,” BofA said in a note dated Monday, as carried by Reuters.

    Oil prices erased earlier gains and traded lower at 9:35 a.m. ET on Tuesday, with WTI Crude still above $61 and Brent Crude above $65 a barrel.

    Oil prices spiked on Monday on a slow restart of U.S. oil production lost in the Texas storm and analysts upgrading their forecasts, predicting a tighter market and prices rallying faster and higher on expected lower inventories.

    Echoing Bank of America, Morgan Stanley also sees Brent touching the $70 mark this year, but a bit later—in the third quarter, expecting “a much-improved market,” including on the demand side.

    On Sunday, Goldman Sachs started the investment banks’ upgrades of oil price forecasts, expecting Brent Crude prices to hit $75 a barrel in the third quarter this year, on the back of faster market rebalancing, lower expected inventories, and traders hedging against inflation.

    Goldman Sachs forecast Brent Crude prices reaching the $70 a barrel mark during the second quarter of this year, and hitting $75 in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs is thus lifting its previous Q2 and Q3 forecasts by $10 per barrel.