IEA：明年全球燃料油需求将下降4.6%

中国石化新闻网讯 据石油新闻2019年12月12日伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）在周四发布的12月份报告中称，明年全球燃料油日均需求量将为614.8万桶，比2019年的644万桶下降4.6%。

IEA表示：“到今年第4季度，荷兰的燃料油需求似乎反映了燃料油零售商的行为，他们在国际海事组织(IMO)改变规格之前清空了高硫燃料油库存。”IEA表示：“在处理掉高含硫燃料后，燃料销售商从9月份开始往他们的储罐中添加低含硫燃料。”

在 IMO从1月1日起降低船用燃料油含硫量限制的新规定出台之前，鹿特丹的燃料油供应商报告称，他们对3.5%含硫量的燃料油的需求非常疲弱，并相应减少了供应。

与此同时，高硫燃料油驳船市场的流动性有所下降。尽管在IMO强制实施硫含量上限之前，对高硫燃料油驳船的需求有所下降，但一些市场参与者表示，他们担心未来几个月这种产品的持续需求可能会超过减少的供应。

3.5%燃料油价格的远期曲线表明，油价上涨势头可能会持续到2020年。明年1月至2月20日期间鹿特丹驳船公司3.5%的燃料油离岸价周二被定为每吨1.5美元，比前一天的每吨- 1.5美元上涨了3美元。这种从期货溢价向现货溢价的转变表明，尽管由于新含硫法规生效预计需求将出现下降，但市场参与者认为该产品在明年初仍有价值。

李峻 编译自 石油新闻

原文如下：

Global fuel oil demand in 2020 to fall 4.6%: IEA

Global fuel oil demand will average 6.148 million b/d in 2020, a 4.6% drop from 6.440 million b/d in 2019, the International Energy Agency said in its December report publishedThursday.

Through Q4 2019 fuel oil demand in the Netherlands seems to have reflected the behaviour of bunker retailers, "who emptied their high sulfur fuel oil inventories ahead of the IMO specification change," the IEA said. "After getting rid of the high sulfur material, bunker sellers started to refill their tanks with very low sulfur fuel oil in September," the agency said.

Bunker suppliers at Rotterdam have reported very weak demand for 3.5% sulfur fuel oil ahead of the International Maritime Organization's new rules reducing sulfur limits in bunker fuel from January 1, and have scaled down supply accordingly, .

At the prompt, the HSFO barge market has seen decreased liquidity this week. Despite fading demand for HSFO barges inthe run-up to the IMO-mandated sulfur cap, some market participants have expressed concerns that persisting pockets of demand for the product could outstrip reduced supply in the coming months.

The forward curve for 3.5% fuel oil suggests strength may continue into 2020. The 3.5% fuel oil FOB Rotterdam barges time spread between January and February 20, which measuresthe structure in flat prices between the months, was assessed at $1.50/mt on Tuesday, increasing $3 from minus $1.50/mt the previous day. This shift from contango into backwardationindicates that market participants still see value in the product at the start of 2020 despite an expected fall in demand as the new sulfur regulations come into force.