壳牌下调了对石油产品销售的预测

    中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价12月20日报道，荷兰皇家壳牌公司（Royal Dutch Shell）周五表示，预计第四季度减记将多达23亿美元，这家最新的能源巨头公司由于经济前景疲软而被迫下调行业价值预估。

    在全年业绩公布前的一次交易更新中，壳牌还下调了对石油产品销售的预测，指出这是至少自2014年以来首次出现年度销售放缓，同时将支出保持在预期下限。

    壳牌表示，“根据宏观前景”，预计本季度将计入17亿美元至23亿美元的税后减损费用。 其没有说减损与哪些资产有关。

    自10月以来，竞争对手雪佛龙(Chevron)，BP，Equinor和西班牙的雷普索尔(Repsol)总计减记约200亿美元，主要是由于长期天然气价格下跌，导致美国页岩气资产减少。

    减损可能会增加壳牌的债务比率，即负债比率，该公司近几年来一直在努力降低这一比率。

    CMC Markets英国首席市场分析师迈克尔·休森(MichaelHewson)表示，指导和减损的减少似乎表明，管理层低估了今年下半年的石油价格将走弱多少，并低估了对石油及其副产品的未来需求。

    截至格林尼治标准时间11：45，该公司股价下跌1.1%，而欧洲整体能源指数则小幅上涨。

    壳牌曾因强劲的石油和天然气交易而超出了第三季度的利润预期，但该公司也警告称，更高的税收将使第四季度的收益减少约5--6亿美元。

    该公司表示，预计该期间将有1亿美元至2亿美元的额外油井注销额，而2019年的资本支出预计将处于其240亿至290亿美元指导范围的下限。

    壳牌在第四季度给出的石油产品销售指引为每日650万--700万桶，而此前预估为每日665万--705万桶。这将是自2014年以来销量首次出现下滑。

    化学品销售量预计将达到340--360万吨，与前五年相比，2019年的销售显著放缓。

    油气产量预计将高于第三季度，液化天然气(LNG)产量与先前预测的880万至940万吨一致。

    郝芬 译自 今日油价

    原文如下：

    Shell writes down up to $2.3 billion on weaker economic outlook

    Royal Dutch Shell said on Friday it expected to write down up to $2.3 billion in the fourth quarter, the latest major energy company forced to shrink estimates for sector values due to a weaker economic outlook.

    In a trading update ahead of full year results, Shell also lowered its oil products sales forecast, pointing to the first annual slowdown in sales since at least 2014, while maintaining spending on the lower end of forecasts.

    Shell said it expected to take post-tax impairment charges in a range between $1.7 billion and $2.3 billion for the quarter "based on the macro outlook". It did not say which assets the impairments relate to.

    Since October, rivals Chevron , BP , Equinor and Spain's Repsol all wrote down a total of around $20 billion, primarily in U.S. shale gas assets due to lower long-term gas prices.

    The impairment will likely increase Shell's debt ratio, or gearing, which the company has struggled to reduce in recent years.

    "This reduction in guidance and impairment appears to show that management underestimated how much weaker oil prices would be in the latter part of this year, as well as underestimating future demand for oil, along with its by-products," said Michael Hewson, chief market Analyst at CMC Markets UK.

    Its shares were down 1.1% by 1145 GMT, compared with slight gains on the broader European energy index .

    Shell, which had beaten third-quarter profit expectations on strong oil and gas trading, also warned that higher taxes would hit earnings by about $500 million to $600 million in the fourth quarter.

    The company said it expected additional well write-offs in the range of $100 million to $200 million in the period, while 2019 capital expenditure was expected to be at the lower end of its guidance range of $24 billion to $29 billion.

    Shell gave guidance for oil product sales of 6.5 million to 7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter, compared with its earlier estimate of 6.65 million bpd to 7.05 million bpd. That would mark the first decline in sales since at least 2014.

    Chemical sales were expected to reach 3.4 million to 3.6 million tonnes, marking a sharp slowdown in 2019 compared to the previous five years.

    Production of oil and gas is expected to be higher from the third quarter, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes are in line with previous forecasts at between 8.8 million and 9.4 million tonnes.