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| 2019-12-27 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据世界天然气网站12月25日消息 2019年澳大利亚预计略微超过卡塔尔，成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国，预计将出口7800万吨液化天然气，而卡塔尔预计将出口7500万吨液化天然气。 不过，澳大利亚工业、创新和科学部在其《资源与能源季刊》中表示，由于卡塔尔液化天然气出口的确切水平尚不明确，因此这一头衔还并不确定。 无论情况如何，预计在20世纪20年代中期，澳大利亚的液化天然气出口都将超过卡塔尔和美国。 去年11月，卡塔尔石油公司公布了另两条液化天然气“巨型生产线”的建设计划，到2027年这将使卡塔尔的液化天然气产能增加64%，达到1.26亿吨。 预计这些计划将在20世纪20年代末巩固卡塔尔作为全球最大液化天然气出口国的地位。 澳大利亚2018-19年液化天然气出口额为500亿美元，高于2017-18年的310亿美元。石油价格回升（相对于2017-18年）和出口量增长，尤其是Wheatstone（2018年下半年开始满负荷生产）和Ichthys液化天然气项目推动了出口收入的增加。 预计2019-20年，澳大利亚液化天然气出口额将下降至490亿美元，2020-21年将进一步回落至470亿美元，原因是与石油相关的合同价格下降（大多数澳大利亚液化天然气都是以这种价格出售）和汇率不断升值。 2019-20年，随着Prelude和Ichthys项目继续提高产量，预计出口量的增长将部分抵消石油相关合同价格下降的影响。 Prelude项目预计将在2019-20年期间提高产量，该项目于6月首次装运液化天然气。Ichthys的产量已经提前增加，在2019年9月的季度达到了额定产能的95%左右，高于6月季度的80%左右。 部分抵消了新项目的出口增长，Gorgon液化天然气公司1号生产线的维护工程预计将在2019年12月的季度减少出口量。 Prelude和Ichthys是继澳大利亚最近的液化天然气投资浪潮之后，其余两个正在提高产量的项目。因此，预计2020-21年液化天然气出口量将趋于平稳。 随着Bayu-Undan气田天然气的枯竭，达尔文液化天然气公司的产量逐渐减少，预计到展望期结束时出口量将减少。 澳大利亚液化天然气出口收益预测较2019年9月资源和能源季度分别下调27亿美元和22亿美元，较低的预测出口收入反映了较低的油价预测。 吴恒磊 编译自 世界天然气 原文如下： Australia to edge Qatar as top LNG exporter in 2019 Australia is expected to marginally edge past Qatar as the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2019, shipping an estimated 78 million tonnes of LNG compared with an estimated 75 million tonnes from Qatar. The title is not certain, however, with a lack of clarity around the precise level of Qatar’s LNG exports, Australia’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science’s said in its Resources and Energy Quarterly. Whatever the case, Australia’s LNG exports are expected to be surpassed by both Qatar and the US during the mid-2020s. In November, Qatar Petroleum unveiled plans to construct another two LNG ‘mega trains’, which would increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity by 64 percent to 126 million tonnes by 2027. These plans are expected to solidify Qatar’s position as the world’s top LNG exporter by the late-2020s. Australia exported $50 billion of LNG in 2018–19, up from $31 billion in 2017–18. Higher export earnings have been driven by the recovery in oil prices (relative to 2017–18), and growing export volumes, particularly from the Wheatstone (which began producing at full capacity in the second half of 2018) and Ichthys LNG projects. The value of Australia’s LNG exports is forecast to decline to $49 billion in 2019–20 and fall back further to $47 billion in 2020–21, driven by declining oil-linked contract prices (at which most Australian LNG is sold) and an appreciating exchange rate. In 2019–20, growth in export volumes is expected to partially offset the impact of lower oil-linked contract prices, as the Prelude and Ichthys projects continue to ramp up production. The Prelude project — which shipped its first LNG cargo in June — is expected to ramp up production over the course of 2019–20. Production at Ichthys has ramped up ahead of schedule, reaching around 95 percent of nameplate capacity during the September 2019 quarter, up from around 80 percent in the June quarter. Partially offsetting export growth from new projects, maintenance works at Train 1 at Gorgon LNG is expected to reduce export volumes in the December 2019 quarter. Prelude and Ichthys are the last two remaining projects that are ramping up production following Australia’s recent wave of LNG investment. LNG export volumes are thus forecast to flatten out 2020–21. Tapering production at Darwin LNG — as gas from the Bayu-Undan field is exhausted — is expected to see a reduction in export volumes towards the end of the outlook period. The forecast for Australian LNG export earnings has been revised down from the September 2019 Resources and Energy Quarterly, by $2.7 billion and $2.2 billion in 2019–20 and 2020–21, respectively. Lower forecast export earnings reflect a lower oil price forecast. |
