2020年日本LNG平均进口价格将下降

中国石化新闻网讯 据世界天然气网站1月30日消息 日本液化天然气平均进口价格将从2019年的10美元/每百万英热单位左右降至2020年的9美元/每百万英热单位以下。

根据日本能源经济研究所发布的《2020年日本和世界能源展望》，受中国和印度需求增长的推动，全球液化天然气市场需求将扩大至3.69亿吨。

不过，能源经济研究所常务理事兼首席经济学家Ken Koyama表示：“美国等国的供应能力将增加到3.81亿吨，超过需求。”

Koyama 表示：“根据该供需平衡，液化天然气现货价格将跌破6美元/每百万英热单位。同时，涵盖大部分液化天然气供应的长期合同下的液化天然气价格基本上与原油价格挂钩。”

他指出，石油市场可能会变得动荡，2020年布伦特原油基准价格平均将为65美元/桶。

考虑到油价预测和液化天然气价格与油价挂钩率的下降，日本液化天然气平均进口价格将从2019年的10美元/每百万英热单位左右降至2020年的9美元/每百万英热单位以下。

“在液化天然气市场全球化的同时，必须关注中国和其他亚洲新兴市场国家以及欧洲的液化天然气进口。”

在供应方面，必须注意在中期内新液化天然气项目的最终投资决策将增加多少。

Koyama 表示：“鉴于长期合同与现货液化天然气价格之间存在偏差，液化天然气供应商和买家如何就长期合同的条款和条件进行谈判将是一件有趣的事情。”

王磊 摘译自 世界天然气

原文如下：

Report: Japan’s average LNG import price to drop in 2020

Japan’s average LNG import price is set to drop from around $10 per million British thermal units (mBtu) in 2019 to below $9 per mBtu in 2020.

According to the 2020 Energy Outlook in Japan and World, issued by Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics, demand in the global LNG market will expand to 369 million tons, driven by growing Chinese and Indian demand.

However, the Institute of energy economics managing director and chief economist, Ken Koyama said, the “supply capacity will increase in such countries as the United States to 381 million tons, surpassing demand.”

“Reflecting such supply-demand balance, the spot LNG price will slip below $6 per mBtu. Meanwhile, LNG prices under long-term contracts covering most of LNG supply are basically indexed to crude oil prices,” Koyama said.

He noted that the oil market could become volatile, with the benchmark Brent crude oil price will average $65 per barrel in 2020.

Reflecting on the oil price forecast and a decline in the rate of LNG prices indexed to oil prices, Japan’s average LNG import price is set to fall from around $10/mBtu in 2019 to less than $9/mBtu in 2020.

“While the LNG market is being globalized, attention must be paid to LNG imports in China and other Asian emerging market countries and in Europe,” he said.

On the supply side, attention must be paid to how far final investment decisions for new LNG projects would increase over the medium-term.

“Given the deviation between long-term contract and spot LNG prices, it would be interesting how LNG suppliers and buyers would negotiate terms and conditions for long-term contracts,” Koyama said.