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| 2020-02-03 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站1月29日纽约报道 美国道琼斯首席执行官周三表示，全球聚乙烯（PE）市场在亚洲和欧洲经历了一段现金利润率为负或盈亏平衡的时期后，将在2020年迎来拐点。 道琼斯首席执行官Jim Fitterling在该公司第四季度财报电话会议上表示：“到2020年目前为止，我们看到的情况与2019年底类似，但现在情况开始转变。随着宏观环境减弱至2019年底，第三方行业报告显示，许多连锁企业的高成本生产商正挣扎于盈亏平衡或负现金利润。” 在聚乙烯方面，他指出，2019年底亚洲和欧洲石脑油生产商的利润率为负或盈亏平衡。对于二苯基甲烷二异氰酸酯（MDI），在全球苯上的分布正在反弹至盈亏平衡水平。 对于聚乙烯和MDI，Jim Fitterling引用了第三方行业报告，报告显示，成本排名第四位的生产商正在考虑或实施降息或延长计划的周转期，以及企业推迟产能增加的公告。 Fitterling表示：“随着我们一些连锁店的库存水平正常化，我们看到了一个良好的环境，拐点将获得牵引力。在我们看来，现在宣称可持续改善还为时过早，事实上，这种动力可能需要一段时间才能发挥出来。” 他补充说：“尽管如此，我们看到了一些早期迹象，支持近期从2019年底的低点逐步好转。” 这位首席执行官援引第三方行业报告称，在传统的3-6月全球乙烯转型期，离线产能将高达15%，而通常为8%。他表示，随着第一季度的进展，这将为定价和利润率扩张提供机会。 王磊 摘译自 ICIS 原文如下： Global PE market poised to hit inflection point in 2020 - Dow CEO The global polyethylene (PE) market should hit an inflection point in 2020, following a period of negative or breakeven cash margins in Asia and Europe, the CEO of US-based Dow said on Wednesday. “So far in 2020, we have seen similar conditions to those at the end of 2019. But the dynamic is now beginning to shift. As macro conditions weakened into the end of 2019, third-party industry reports indicated that high-cost producers in many chains were struggling with breakeven or negative cash margins,” said Dow CEO Jim Fitterling on the company’s Q4 earnings conference call. In PE, he pointed out that naphtha-based producers in Asia and Europe saw negative or breakeven margins at the end of 2019. And for methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), spreads over benzene worldwide are bouncing around breakeven levels, he noted. For PE and MDI, Fitterling cited third-party industry reports which suggested that producers with fourth quartile cost positions are considering or implementing rate cuts or extending planned turnarounds, as well as public announcements by companies delaying capacity additions. “And with inventory levels normalising in some of our chains, we see a good environment for an inflection to gain traction. In our view, it is still too early to claim sustainable improvement, and in fact, it could take some time for the dynamics to play out,” said Fitterling. “That said, we see early signs that support gradual improvement in the near term from the lows that we reached at the end of 2019,” he added. And the traditional March-June period of global ethylene turnarounds should see as much as 15% of capacity offline versus the usual 8%, the CEO said, citing third-party industry reports. This will offer opportunity for pricing and margin expansion as the first quarter progresses, he said. |
