全球石油需求将在2040年左右或更早达到峰值

中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻2月8日消息称，国际货币基金组织(IMF)在一份关于石油未来的新报告中表示，全球石油需求将在2040年左右（或更早）达到顶峰。

国际货币基金组织表示，这可能对石油出口国产生“重大”影响，主要是那些中东国家，如果不进行重大改革，这些国家现有的金融财富可能在未来15年内耗尽。

国际货币基金组织在星期四发表的题为“海湾合作委员会地区石油和财政可持续性的未来”的报告中说：“全球石油需求增长将显著减速，其水平可能在未来20年内见顶。”

国际货币基金组织表示，对过去石油市场发展的分析显示，“在考虑了收入和人口增长之后，全球石油需求出现了强劲而持续的下降趋势。”

国际货币基金组织表示，这反映了一系列因素，如能源效率的长期提高和石油的替代，这些趋势到目前为止一直被“经济和人口扩张的影响所掩盖”。

“但在未来几年，它将变得更加明显，导致全球石油需求逐渐放缓，并最终下降。根据我们的基准预测，需求将在2040年左右见顶，如果监管部门加大对环境保护的推动力度、加快能源效率的提高，这一峰值将出现得更早。”

该组织表示，全球天然气需求增长预计也将放缓，“尽管预计未来几十年仍将保持正增长。”

国际货币基金组织并不是第一个预测全球石油需求下降的组织。2019年底，国际能源署石油工业和市场部门负责人Neil Atkinson告诉CNBC，人口增长仍是石油需求的主要驱动力，他说石油需求可能在本世纪30年代达到峰值。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Global oil demand to peak around 2040 or ‘much sooner,’ IMF says

Global oil demand will peak around 2040 – or “much sooner” – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a new report on the future of oil.

The IMF said that this could have a “significant” impact on oil-exporting countries, predominantly those in the Middle East whose existing financial wealth could be depleted in the next 15 years if major reforms aren’t undertaken.

“Growth of global oil demand will significantly decelerate, and its level could peak in the next two decades,” the IMF said in its report entitled, “The Future of oil and fiscal sustainability in the GCC Region,” published Thursday.

The IMF said analysis of past oil market developments revealed “a strong and sustained declining trend in the global oil demand, after accounting for income and population growth.”

This reflected a range of factors, the IMF said, such as long-term improvement in energy efficiency and substitution away from oil, trends that had so far been “veiled by the effects of economic and population expansion.”

“But it is poised to become more visible in the coming years, resulting in a path of gradually slowing—and eventually declining—global demand for oil. The latter would peak by around 2040 in our benchmark projection or much sooner in scenarios of stronger regulatory push for environmental protection and faster improvements in energy efficiency.”

Growth of global demand for natural gas is also expected to slow, the Fund said, “although it is expected to remain positive in the coming decades.”

The IMF is not the first to make predictions about a decline in global oil demand. In late 2019, Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, told CNBC that population growth remained the key driving force for oil demand, which he said could peak in the 2030s.