EIA：天然气的生产和出口将继续增长

中国石化新闻网讯 据全球石油新闻2月20消息称，据美国能源信息署（EIA）的2020年年度能源展望（AEO2020）中发布的预测，在大多数AEO2020案例中，美国的干燥天然气总产量将持续增长，直到2050年，主要是为了支持增长美国天然气出口到全球市场。天然气进入全球市场。2017年，受液化天然气(LNG)出口增加、输往墨西哥的管道增加以及从加拿大进口减少的推动，美国的天然气出口量开始超过进口量。在大多数AEO2020案例中，到2050年，天然气净出口将继续增长，并且大部分增长是在短期内完成的。

EIA预计，一旦最终数据出炉，2019年干气产量将达到34万亿立方英尺(Tcf)。在AEO2020的参考案例中，EIA预测到2050年美国的干气产量将达到45万亿立方英尺。产量增长主要来自东部、墨西哥湾沿岸和西南地区致密油和页岩油资源的持续开发，这大大弥补了其他地区产量的下降。

干气产量的增加主要来自于东部地区的马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡以及墨西哥湾沿岸地区的海恩斯维尔等天然气层。

在参考案例中，美国通过管道出口的天然气和美国液化天然气出口在2030年都将继续增长。液化天然气出口占出口增长的大部分，因为更多的液化天然气出口设施正在投入使用，更多的项目正在建设中。在参考案例中，EIA预计液化天然气出口将增加至三倍，从2019年的1.7万亿立方英尺增加到2030年的5.8万亿立方英尺，相当于每天近160亿立方英尺(Bcf/d)。到2050年，随着美国来源的液化天然气在全球市场上的竞争力下降，以及越来越多的国家成为全球液化天然气供应商，液化天然气出口仍将保持在这一水平。

曹海斌 摘译自 全球石油新闻

EIA expects natural gas production and exports to continue increasing in most scenarios

According to projections published in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), total dry natural gas production in the United States will continue to increase until 2050 in most of the AEO2020 cases, primarily to support growing U.S. exports of natural gas to global markets. The United States began exporting more natural gas than it imports on an annual basis in 2017, driven by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, increased pipeline exports to Mexico, and reduced imports from Canada. In most of the AEO2020 cases, net natural gas exports continue to increase through 2050, and most of the increase is in the near term.

EIA expects dry natural gas production to total 34 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2019 once the final data is in. In the AEO2020 Reference case, EIA projects that U.S. dry natural gas production will reach 45 Tcf by 2050. Production growth results largely from continued development of tight and shale resources in the East, Gulf Coast, and Southwest regions, which more than offsets production declines in other regions. Dry natural gas production from these three regions accounted for 68% of total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2019.

Most of the increase in dry natural gas production is coming from natural gas formations such as the Marcellus and Utica in the East region and the Haynesville in the Gulf Coast region.

In the Reference case, both U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline and U.S. LNG exports continue to grow through 2030. LNG exports account for most of the export growth because more LNG export facilities are becoming operational and more projects are under construction. In the Reference case, EIA projects that LNG exports will almost triple, from 1.7 Tcf in 2019 to 5.8 Tcf in 2030, the equivalent of nearly 16 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). LNG exports remain at this level through 2050 as U.S.-sourced LNG becomes less competitive in world markets and as more countries become global LNG suppliers.