圭亚那有望成为全球人均石油产量最高国家

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日石油2020年2月22日报道，据估计，到本世纪20年代中期至2030年，圭亚那的石油日产量有望达到75万桶，但美国安全研究项目(ASP)称，这一数字可能“低估了这个南美洲国家的石油产量”。

ASP表示，与最近在以色列、埃及、澳大利亚或俄罗斯等地发现的其它海上石油资源不同，圭亚那发现的几乎所有的储量都是有价值的轻质低硫原油，而不是更难变现的天然气或重油等资源。

随着圭亚那丽莎大油田一期开发项目开始投产，圭亚那的石油产量预计将迅速上升，达到每日12万桶的峰值。如果一切顺利的话，到2030年前，圭亚那石油日产量有望超过100万桶。在这样的水平上，圭亚那将排在厄瓜多尔、赤道几内亚或加蓬等欧佩克成员国之前。

ASP在一份报告中说：“事实上，这些产量水平可能低估了这个南美洲国家真实的石油产量，因为这个产量仅占埃克森美孚公司/赫斯公司组成的国际财团在斯塔布鲁克区块的许可证的部分。当其他石油公司在圭亚那水域的其他地方勘探时，他们可能会看到类似的结果。”

圭亚那人口不多，只有75万多一点。ASP说，圭亚那将很快成为全球人均石油产量最高的国家，甚至超过科威特或阿联酋等海湾君主国。“这样一笔意外之财无疑将改变这个南美洲国家：圭亚那政府和人民未来的行动将决定这个国家如何改变，”ASP在报告中如是说。

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

Guyana production on path to rival OPEC top guns

It is estimated that by the mid-2020s to 2030, oil production in Guyana could hit 750,000 barrels per day but this figure may ‘underestimate the country’s production’ the American Security Project (ASP) has said.

ASP said unlike other recent discoveries of offshore petroleum resources in places like Israel, Egypt, Australia, or Russia, almost all the reserves are expected to be valuable light sweet crude, not harder to monetize resources like gas or heavy oil.

With the start of production in December at the Liza Phase 1 Development, output is expected to swiftly rise to reach the peak 120,000 barrels per day. If all goes smoothly in permitting and production, output could rise to over 1 million barrels per day by 2030. At such a level, Guyana would rank ahead of OPEC countries like Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, or Gabon.

“In fact, these production levels may underestimate the country’s production, because they only account for the ExxonMobil/Hessconsortium’s license in the Stabroek block. As other oil companies explore elsewhere in Guyana’s waters, they could see similar outcomes,” ASP had noted in a report.

With Guyana’s small population of just over 750,000 people, ASP said the country will quickly rise to the top of the rankings of oil production per person, outranking even Gulf monarchies like Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates. “Such a windfall will undoubtedly change the country: the actions of the government and people of Guyana will determine how it changes,” the ASP report stated.