EIA：今年下半年天然气库存将达到创纪录水平

中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻2月25日消息称，在美国能源信息署（EIA）的2月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中，EIA预测，2019-20年冬季采暖季(11月1日至3月31日)结束时，美国48个州的天然气库存将达到19350亿立方英尺(Bcf)，比过去五年的平均水平高出12%。这种增长是温和的冬季温度和持续的强劲生产的结果。EIA预测，在4月1日至10月31日的天然气补充季节，天然气净注入量将达到40290亿立方英尺，如果实现这一目标，这将是有记录以来最大的月度库存水平。

今年冬天温和的冬季气温给天然气价格带来了下行压力，导致提取的天然气量减少。2019年全年，干燥天然气产量和天然气出口量（尤其是液化天然气）的同比增长也影响了天然气的存储水平。2019年10月11日，天然气储量总量自2017年年中以来首次超过前一个五年平均水平（这是典型存储水平的指标）。

2019年10月31日，供暖季节开始时，天然气储量为37250亿立方英尺。EIA预计，到2020年3月底，可提取的天然气储量将达到1.79万亿立方英尺。如果实现这一目标，这将是自2015-16年冬天以来，在采暖季节提取的最少的天然气。2015-16年冬天的气温也很温和。

天然气储存的注入和提取平衡了季节性和其他消费波动。冬季对天然气的需求最大，因为冬季用于供暖的住宅和商业对天然气的需求增加。电力部门的天然气消耗在夏季是最大的，因为在夏季，由于空调的缘故，总电力需求相对较高。

在最新的STEO中，EIA预计，尽管干燥天然气产量下降，电力行业天然气消耗增加，天然气出口增加，但2020年剩余时间内，可储存的天然气总量将超过此前五年的平均水平。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

EIA forecasts natural gas inventories will reach record levels later this year

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Lower 48 states’ working natural gas in storage will end the 2019–20 winter heating season (November 1–March 31) at 1,935 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with 12% more inventory than the previous five-year average. This increase is the result of mild winter temperatures and continuing strong production. EIA forecasts that net injections during the refill season (April 1–October 31) will bring the total working gas in storage to 4,029 Bcf, which, if realized, would be the largest monthly inventory level on record.

Mild winter temperatures for the current winter have put downward pressure on natural gas prices and led to smaller withdrawals from natural gas into storage. Year-over-year growth in dry natural gas production and natural gas exports—especially liquefied natural gas (LNG)—throughout 2019 also affected natural gas storage levels. On October 11, 2019, the total natural gas in storage surpassed the previous five-year average—an indicator of typical storage levels—for the first time since mid-2017.

The total natural gas in storage at the start of this heating season was 3,725 Bcf on October 31, 2019. EIA expects withdrawals from working natural gas storage to total 1,790 Bcf at the end of March 2020. If realized, this would be the least natural gas withdrawn during a heating season since the winter of 2015–16, when temperatures were also mild.

Injections into and withdrawals from natural gas storage balance seasonal and other fluctuations in consumption. Natural gas demand is greatest in the winter months, when residential and commercial demand for natural gas for space heating increases. Natural gas consumption in the power sector is greatest in summer months, when overall electricity demand is relatively high because of air conditioning.

In the latest STEO, EIA expects the total working natural gas in storage will exceed the previous five-year average for the remainder of 2020, despite declines in dry natural gas production, increases in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, and increases in natural gas exports.