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| 2020-03-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻网站3月11日消息 由于沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的油价战，WTI价格跌至30美元/桶左右，美国页岩产量受到严重打击。一位分析师表示，对于负债的页岩气运营商来说，前景相当艰难。 数据和分析公司GlobalData的油气分析师Adrian Lara表示：“毫无疑问，负债的页岩气运营商现在的前景相当艰难，尽管现在准确地说哪些公司将面临破产还为时过早，但统计数字可能会超过往年。” Adrian Lara说：“对于一些运营商来说，优质油田的盈亏平衡价格可能低于每桶25美元，但一旦将产量较低的油田纳入公司的范畴，保持盈利所需的价格就不低于每桶40美元。” “由于目前WTI的价格为每桶30美元，而且价格可能下降多少还不确定，钻井活动在短期内将大大减少，最终导致产量下降。在2020年剩下的时间里，运营商将重新考虑他们的发展战略，以减少支出，并集中精力于他们最好的生产区块。” “事实上，从微观角度看，形势看起来相当艰难，肯定会有亏损企业，但从宏观角度看，美国页岩气供应已经证明，不仅在需要时进行了重新平衡，而且仍在继续的生产商往往会改善他们的策略。这是由于美国非常规行业的活力，这种外部冲击波及许多参与者，其中也包括许多设备和服务公司。运营商倾向于要求降低所雇佣服务的价格，这有助于减轻负面影响。” Adrian Lara 说：“毫无疑问，USL48运营商现在在管理债务和稳定自由现金流方面面临着更大的挑战，然而，他们总能找到方法，通过提高成本效率、改进技术或并购整合来适应新的现实。更重要的是，由于可用的未开发面积以及美国的许多运营商，页岩供应不会很快消失，因此只要价格稳定并向上移动，运营商的增长就能相对迅速地恢复。” 王磊 摘译自 油气新闻 原文如下： US shale supply badly hit by price war Following the WTI price fall to around $30 per barrel due to an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, US shale production has been badly hit. The outlook is quite difficult for indebted shale operators, says an analyst. “There is no doubt the outlook is now quite difficult for indebted shale operators and although it is too early to say with accuracy which companies will be driven out of the game or into bankruptcy, the count will likely be more than in previous years," says Adrian Lara, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. "Oil break even prices for premium acreage can reach less than $25 per barrel for some operators but once less productive acreage is included in a company’s position, the price needed to remain profitable is no less than $40 per barrel," Lara says. “With the current WTI price at $30 per barrel and with uncertainty around how much lower the price can be, drilling activity will be significantly reduced in the short term, ultimately reducing production. For the rest of 2020 operators are to rethink their development strategies in order to reduce expenditure and focus on their best productive acreage. “Indeed, from a micro perspective things are looking quite difficult and there will certainly be losing companies, however from a macro perspective, the US shale supply has proved that not only it rebalances as needed, but that the producers that remain tend to improve their game. This is due to the dynamism of the unconventional sector in the US where this type of external shock is spread over many players that also include the many equipment and services companies. Operators tend to demand lower prices for services hired and this helps to mitigate the negative impact. “There is no doubt that the USL48 operators are now more challenged to manage their debt and stabilise their free cash flow, however, they can always find the way to adjust to the new reality by a mix of increasing cost efficiencies, improved technology or mergers and acquisitions (M&A) consolidation. More importantly, with available undeveloped acreage and with many operators in the US, shale supply won’t go away any time soon, so whenever prices stabilise and move upwards operators’ growth can resume relatively quickly,” says Lara. |
