EIA：今年第四季度石油市场有望恢复平衡

中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月11日报道 根据3月6日欧佩克会议，美国能源信息署（EIA）对全球石油供需和价格的短期前景预测进行了重大调整，直到2020年第四季度才能看到市场回归平衡。

EIA在其最新的短期能源展望（STEO）中发布的预测现在假设欧佩克将瞄准市场份额，而不是平衡的全球石油市场。此前，EIA认为，欧佩克将在2020年和2021年限制产量，以努力保持全球石油市场相对平衡。

EIA预测，2020年4-12月，欧佩克原油平均日产量将达到2920万桶，高于2020年第一季度的平均日产量2870万桶。EIA预测，到2021年，欧佩克原油产量将平均上升到2940万桶/日。从2020年4月开始，EIA将把厄瓜多尔的产量纳入非欧佩克数据。

由于全球经济增长假设降低，以及全球预期出行减少，EIA预计2020年第一季度全球石油和液体燃料平均消费量将达到9910万桶/日，较2019年同期下降90万桶/日。EIA预计，2020年全球石油和液体燃料需求将增长不到40万桶/日（较1月份STEO预测的130万桶/日减少），2021年将增长170万桶/日。

EIA还对日本、韩国和意大利的需求预测进行了大幅下调。

EIA预测，到2020年第三季度，COVID-19的影响将减弱，在预测的剩余时间内，需求增长将恢复先前的趋势。

EIA预计，全球液体燃料库存在2019年下降约10万桶/日后，2020年将平均增长100万桶/日。EIA预计，由于石油需求增长缓慢，库存将在2020年上半年达到最大，以170万桶/日的速度增长。

随着全球经济走强，需求增长更加强劲，供应增长放缓，这将有助于2020年第四季度市场的平衡，并有助于2021年全球石油库存的减少。EIA预计2021年全球液体燃料库存将下降40万桶/日。

吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal

原文如下：

EIA forecasts more balanced oil market by fourth-quarter 2020

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly revised its short-term outlooks for global oil supply, demand, and prices in light of the Mar. 6 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting and doesn't see balance returning to the market until fourth-quarter 2020.

Published in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA’s forecast now assumes that OPEC will target market share instead of a balanced global oil market. Previously, EIA assumed OPEC would limit production in 2020 and 2021 in an effort to maintain relatively balanced global oil markets.

EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.2 million b/d from April through December 2020, up from an average of 28.7 million b/d in the first quarter of 2020. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will rise to an average of 29.4 million b/d in 2021. Beginning with the April 2020 STEO, EIA will include Ecuador’s production volumes in non-OPEC data.

With a reduced assumption for global economic growth along with reduced expected travel globally, EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will average 99.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2020, a decline of 900,000 b/d from the same period in 2019. EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will rise by less than 400,000 b/d in 2020 (a reduction from the January STEO forecast of 1.3 million b/d), and by 1.7 million b/d in 2021.

EIA’s forecast assumes the demand effects from COVID-19 will diminish by the third quarter of 2020, with demand growth resuming its previous trend through the remainder of the forecast.

EIA expects that global liquid fuels inventories will grow by an average of 1.0 million b/d in 2020 after falling by about 100,000 b/d in 2019. EIA expects inventory builds will be largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 1.7 million b/d because of slow oil demand growth.

Firmer demand growth as the global economy strengthens and slower supply growth will contribute to balanced markets in the fourth quarter of 2020 and global oil inventory draws in 2021. EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories will decline by 400,000 b/d in 2021.