美国天然气期货价格上涨近4%

中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站3月13日消息 美国天然气期货周五大涨近4%，因市场预期本周早些时候油价暴跌将导致石油及其伴生气产量下降，从而使需求能够消化近年来形成的天然气供应过剩。美国能源公司对油价下跌做出了迅速反应，油价下跌了三分之一，他们宣布了削减新钻井开支的计划，而新钻井的开支甚至超过了其将削减的数额。

分析人士表示，美国原油产量下降将削减与西德州二叠纪等页岩盆地石油钻探相关的天然气产量。过去几年，天然气产量的增长主要来自伴生气。美国东部时间上午9:43（格林尼治标准时间13：43），纽约商品交易所4月份交割的天然气期货价格上涨7美分（3.8%），至1.911美元/每百万英热单位。

本周，期货涨幅有望达到12%左右，创下去年11月以来的最大单周涨幅。2021年的期货价格有望自1月份以来首次超过2022年。尽管本周上涨，但自11月初创下2.905美元/每百万英热单位的8个月高点以来，天然气价格仍下跌了约34%，由于接近创纪录的产量和温和的冬季天气使公用事业公司能够储存更多的天然气，这使得燃料短缺和价格上涨的可能性不大。随着本周油价的所有波动，自2月下旬以来，天然气期货的隐含波动率飙升了65%。与此同时，尽管上周五油价反弹7%，但油价仍将创下2008年金融危机以来的最大单周跌幅，因为疫情影响到需求，原油生产商承诺增加供应。

数据提供商Refinitiv预计，美国48个州（包括出口）的天然气需求将从本周的平均1015亿立方英尺/天上升至下周的1043亿立方英尺/天，然后在两周内下滑至1038亿立方英尺/天，这与Refinitiv周四的预测相似。根据Refinitiv的初步数据，流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的天然气量有望从周四的82亿立方英尺/天增至周五的88亿立方英尺/天。相比之下，上周的平均值为78亿立方英尺/天，1月31日的日最高值为95亿立方英尺/天。与此同时，根据Refinitiv的数据，周四美国天气产量从周三的937亿立方英尺/天小幅上升至940亿立方英尺/天。相比之下，上周的平均值为937亿立方英尺/天，11月30日的日最高值为966亿立方英尺/天。

吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures rose near 4% with oil on expectations output will decline

U.S. natural gas futures jumped almost 4% on Friday on expectations the plunge in oil prices earlier this week would cause oil and its associated gas production to drop, allowing demand to absorb much of the gas oversupply that has built up in recent years. U.S. energy firms responded quickly to the falling oil prices, which lost a third of their value, by announcing plans to slash spending on new drilling that were even bigger than what they had already said they would cut.

Analysts said a drop in U.S. crude output would cut the amount of gas produced in association with oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in West Texas. Much of the growth in gas output over the past several years has come from associated gas. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7 cents, or 3.8%, to $1.911 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:43 a.m. EDT (1343 GMT).

For the week, the front-month was on track to rise about 12%, its biggest weekly increase since November. Looking ahead, futures for calendar 2021 were on track to rise over calendar 2022 for the first time since January. Despite this week's gains, gas prices were still down about 34% since hitting an eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu in early November because near-record production and mild winter weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely. With all the price swings this week, implied volatility for gas futures has soared 65% since late February. Oil prices, meanwhile, were set for their biggest weekly slide since the 2008 financial crisis despite a 7% bounce on Friday, as the coronavirus outbreak threatened demand and crude producers promised more supply.

Data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.3 bcfd next week before sliding to 103.8 bcfd in two weeks. That is similar to Refinitiv's forecasts on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to rise to 8.8 bcfd on Friday from 8.2 bcfd on Thursday, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 7.8 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31. U.S. production, meanwhile, edged up to 94.0 bcfd on Thursday from 93.7 bcfd on Wednesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 93.7 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 96.6 bcfd on Nov. 30.