今年产油国油气收入可能大幅减少85%

中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil Price网站2020年3月17日休斯顿报道，欧佩克和国际能源署(IEA)首脑在一份联合声明中表示，由于越来越多的国家进入封闭状态以及石油需求将受到前所未有的冲击，疫情大流行和油价崩溃将把那些严重依赖石油易受攻击的发展中经济体的石油和天然气收入大幅削减85%。

IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔和欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴尔金多日前在电话中讨论了目前的石油市场形势以及需求低迷和低油价对全球经济和经济脆弱产油国的潜在影响。

欧佩克和IEA在一份联合新闻稿中表示：“根据IEA最近的分析，如果目前的市场状况继续下去，石油生产国今年来自石油和天然气的收入将下降50%到85%，达到20多年来的最低水平。这可能会产生重大的社会和经济后果，尤其是大幅减少诸如医疗和教育那样的关键公共部门的支出。”

上周，欧佩克和IEA双双下调了今年全球石油需求预测，预计随着疫情在全球蔓延，全球经济增长将大幅放缓，石油需求将出现零增长甚至负增长。IEA称，今年全球石油需求将出现自2009年金融危机以来的首次下降，并将每日需求预估下调了110万桶。IEA预计，今年全球石油日需求将比去年减少9万桶。

欧佩克目前预计，今年全球石油日需求仅增加6万桶，此前该组织把上月的需求预估削减了92万桶。

李峻 编译自 Oil Price.com

原文如下：

Oil Nations Could See Income Crash By Up To 85 Percent In 2020

The coronavirus pandemic and collapsing oil prices will slash the oil and gas revenues of vulnerable oil-reliant developing economies by up to 85 percent, the heads of OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a joint statement as a growing number of countries are going into lockdown and oil demand is set to take an unprecedented hit.

Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, and OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo spoke on the phone to discuss the current oil market situation and the potential impact of depressed demand and low oil prices on the global economy and on oil-producing nations with vulnerable economies.

“[I]f current market conditions continue, their income from oil and gas will fall by 50% to 85% in 2020, reaching the lowest levels in more than two decades, according to recent IEA analysis. This is likely to have major social and economic consequences, notably for public sector spending in vital areas such as healthcare and education,” OPEC and the IEA said in a joint release.

Last week, both OPEC and the IEA slashed their projections for oil demand this year, expecting zero and even negative growth in demand amid significant economic slowdown as the epidemic spreads around the world. Global oil demand is set to drop this year for the first time since the financial crisis in 2009, the IEA said as it slashed its demand outlook by 1.1 million bpd. The IEA now sees global demand falling by 90,000 bpd year on year in 2020.

OPEC, for its part, now sees global oil demand rising by mere 60,000 bpd in 2020 after it slashed its forecasts by 920,000 bpd from last month’s assessment.