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| 2020-03-19 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil Price网站2020年3月17日休斯顿报道，全球领先的国际性金融服务公司摩根士丹利日前进一步下调了油价预期，摩根士丹利目前预计布伦特原油第二季度均价将从此前其预测的每桶35美元下降到30美元。 路透社援引国际领先投资银行高盛集团的话称：“短期内股价有可能跌至更低水平。” 全球规模最大银行及金融机构之一的英国巴克莱银行本月早些时候也下调了油价预期。这家英国银行目前预计今年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶43美元，西德克萨斯中质原油为每桶40美元。此前巴克莱银行曾预测今年布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油的均价分别为59美元和54美元。 更早些时候，摩根士丹利曾预计布伦特原油第二季度均价为每桶55美元，低于其此前预估的57.50美元，西德克萨斯中质原油均价为每桶50美元左右，低于其此前预估的52.50美元。 目前，高盛集团最为悲观。这家投资银行上周表示：“如果俄罗斯和沙特之间的油价大战持续足够长时间，我们可能会看到布伦特原油价格跌至每桶20美元。” 《商业内幕》援引高盛集团分析师丹尼尔·库尔瓦林的话报道说，正是这场价格大战，而不是疫情爆发后全球经济衰退的前景，“彻底改变了石油和天然气市场的前景”。 库尔瓦林说：“对今年石油市场的预测甚至比2014年11月时的预测更加可怕，当时一场价格战刚刚开始。由于疫情导致了石油需求大幅下降，形势到了紧要关头。” 国际机构也在调整对石油需求的预测。美国能源信息署、国际能源署和石油输出国组织都预计今年的石油需求会受到严重打击，主要原因还是疫情爆发。 更糟糕的可能还在后头，至少挪威能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）是这么认为的。“油价的反应非常负面，我们认为……我们现在还没有看到油价的底部。就在欧佩克和产油国向市场打开新供应闸门的时候，3月至4月的潜在需求下降可能会让世界上从未见过的任何情况都相形见绌。” 李峻 编译自 Oil Price.com 原文如下： Morgan Stanley Slashes Brent Oil Forecast To $30 Morgan Stanley further cut its oil price forecast, now expecting Brent crude to average $30 a barrel during the second quarter, from $35 a barrel earlier. Reuters quoted the investment bank as saying, “Temporary sell-offs to even lower levels are possible, if not likely.” Barclays also revised its oil price forecast earlier this month. The UK bank now expects Brent to average $43 a barrel in 2020, with West Texas Intermediate at $40. That’s down from an earlier forecast of $59 for Brent and $54 for WTI. Even earlier, Morgan Stanley said it expected Brent crude to average $55 a barrel in the second quarter, down from $57.50 earlier, and WTI to trade at around $50 a barrel, down from $52.50. For now, Goldman is the most pessimistic. The investment bank said last week we could see Brent fall as low as $20 a barrel if the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia continues long enough. It was this war, rather than the prospects of a global recession on the back of the coronavirus outbreak, that "completely changes the outlook for oil and gas markets," according to Goldman analyst Daniel Courvalin, as quoted by Business Insider. "The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus," Courvalin said. International agencies are also revising their forecasts, for oil demand this time. The EIA, the IEA, and OPEC all expect demand to take a beating this year, mostly because of the coronavirus, again. Worse may be yet to come, at least according to Rystad Energy. “Oil prices have reacted extremely negatively and we believe ... that we have not seen the bottom of the oil price just yet,” the Norwegian consultancy said, as quoted by CNBC. “The potential loss of demand in March-April may dwarf anything the World has ever seen, just when OPEC+ producers open the floodgates of new supply to the market.” |
