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| 2020-03-19 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月17日消息 能源安全分析公司ESAI Energy表示，作为价格弹性供应源，美国页岩产量将相对较快地应对油价大幅下跌，预计2020年将下降17万- 100万桶/日。ESAI研究了三种价格情景，以及每种情景下在2020年剩余时间里对页岩盆地产量的影响。 “美国勘探与生产公司已经报告称，将进一步削减2020年的支出，并削减计划中的钻井活动。新的常态已经到来，财政纪律和强劲的资产负债表对应对当前和未来的价格波动更加重要。” ESAI表示，若油价持续低于40美元/桶，将需要进行重大重组。许多规模较小的生产商将无法继续运营，破产将增加，这将导致美国页岩气年底比年初减少近100万桶/日。 如果WTI恢复较快，达到40-50美元/桶，对冲产量和有限的已钻但未完成井的减少，产量将保持持平。然而，削减开支将阻碍未来钻探进程和竣工工程的进行，以完全抵消下降的影响，导致2020年底美国页岩的总产量比年初下降约33万桶/日。 ESAI表示，WTI价格回升至50美元/桶以上，应足以恢复和维持美国页岩气。预计生产商将把资本支出集中于维持生产，而不是增加生产，偿还债务和实现自由现金流以及维持股息。在这种情况下，美国页岩到2020年仅略微下降约17万桶/日。 ESAI页岩分析师伊丽莎白·墨菲表示：“到目前为止，我们处于一个40美元以下甚至30美元以下的石油市场。但一年时间是漫长的，我们仍预计下半年价格将回升。” 王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal 原文如下： ESAI: US shale could contract by 1.0 million b/d within the year As a price-elastic source of supply, US shale production will respond relatively quickly to the steep drop in oil prices, ESAI Energy said, noting an expected decline of 170,000 b/d to 1 million b/d in 2020. ESAI examined three price scenarios and the impact on shale basin production for the rest of 2020 under each scenario. “Already US E&Ps are reporting further reductions to their 2020 spending guidance and cutting back on planned drilling activity. A new-normal is here, with fiscal discipline and strong balance sheets even more important to weather current and future price volatility.” A sustained price under $40/bbl will require significant restructuring, ESAI said. Many smaller producers will be unable to continue operating and bankruptcies will increase, resulting in US shale ending the year almost 1 million b/d lower than the start. If WTI were to recover fairly quickly to $40-50/bbl, hedged production and a limited drawdown of drilled but uncompleted wells would initially keep production flat. However, spending cuts would prevent enough drilling and completions to fully offset decline, resulting in overall US shale ending 2020 about 330,000 b/d lower than at the start of the year. A recovery in WTI to over $50/bbl should be sufficient to recover and sustain US shale, ESAI said. Producers would be expected to concentrate capex on maintaining, not growing production, paying down debt, achieving free cash flow, and maintaining a dividend. In this scenario, US shale ends 2020 with only a slight decline of roughly 170,000 b/d. “So far, we are living in a market of sub-$40 or even sub-$30 oil. But a year is a long time. We still expect a recovery in prices in the second half,” said ESAI Energy shale analyst Elisabeth Murphy. |
