|
| 2020-03-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
 |
 |
石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据美国彭博新闻社3月18日伦敦报道，沙特和俄罗斯之间的恶性油价战还能持续多久?如果以史为鉴，这场油价战将是漫长的战争。 包括当前这场油价战，在过去35年里，沙特先后发动了4次油价战。前3次油价战都至少持续了一年，原油价格下跌了至少50%。 当然，这一次油价战可能会有所不同——因为从来没有一次油价战需求冲击与供应冲击同时发生。但最近的几次油价战至少可以作为决策者衡量痛苦阈值的指南。 以下是前3次油价战的表现： 第一次油价战：持续13个月。1985年6月，在沙特阿拉伯塔伊夫的一次会议上，沙特国王警告欧佩克成员国，他的国家将不再独自承担减产的重任。当年11月，利雅得采取行动，让大量原油涌入市场。油价在6个月内从每桶31美元暴跌至每桶9.75美元。和平直到1986年12月才到来。 第二次油价战：持续17个月。此战开始于1997年11月在印度尼西亚雅加达的一次会议上。沙特提高了产量以对抗委内瑞拉，因为后者在利润丰厚的美国市场迅速抢占了市场份额。利雅得没有预料到的是，原油需求会在新兴市场危机和暖冬期间崩溃。油价从每桶大约20美元暴跌至不足10美元，直到1999年4月才实现了和平。 第三次油价战：持续22个月。此战始于2014年11月在维也纳的一次会议上。沙特厌倦了非欧佩克产油国在欧佩克减产问题上坐吃山空，并担心美国页岩革命的影响，因此采取了“随产量而动”的政策。油价从每桶大约100美元暴跌至27.88美元。直到2016年9月，和平才到来，利雅得态度180度大转弯，俄罗斯也加入了削减的行列。 这一次油价战从一开始就更加残酷，几天内油价暴跌超过了35%。在过去的3次油价战中，油价在几个月的时间里缓慢下跌。利雅得新的震慑战术可能会通过制造如此多的痛苦、如此迅速地缩短战斗时间，以至于每个人都必须更早地坐到谈判桌前。 李峻 编译自 彭博社 原文如下： History shows the 2020 oil-price war won’t end soon How long can the vicious oil-price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia last? If history is any guide, the battle will be a long one. Riyadh has waged four price wars, including the current one, over the last 35 years. All of them lasted at least a year, and prices plunged at least 50%. This time may be different, of course -- there’s never been a demand shock so great at the same time as the supply shock. But the last wars are at least a guide to the pain thresholds of policymakers. Here’s how they played out: Price War I: 13 months. In June 1985, at a meeting in Taif, Saudi Arabia, King Fahd warned OPEC countries that his country would no longer carry the burden of production cuts alone. In November, Riyadh moved to flood the market. Oil plunged from $31 a barrel to $9.75 a barrel in six months. The peace didn’t come until December 1986. Price War II: 17 months. It started in November 1997 at a meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia. Saudi Arabia boosted production to fight Venezuela, which was quickly grabbing market share in the lucrative U.S. market. What Riyadh hadn’t anticipated was that demand would collapse amid the emerging-markets crisis and a warm winter. Oil fell from about $20 a barrel to less than $10, and the peace didn’t arrive until April 1999. Price War III: 22 months. It started in November 2014 with a meeting in Vienna. Tired of non-OPEC countries freeloading on the cartel’s production cuts, and worried about the impact of the U.S. shale revolution, Saudi Arabia adopted a policy of pump-at-will. Oil collapsed from about $100 a barrel to $27.88. The peace didn’t come until September 2016: Riyadh made a U-turn and Russia joined the cuts. This time, the battle was more brutal from the start, with prices crashing more than 35% in days. In past wars prices tumbled slowly, over a period of months. Riyadh’s new shock-and-awe tactics may just shorten the fight by inflicting so much pain, so quickly, that everyone has to come to the table sooner. |
