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| 2020-03-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社3月19日伦敦报道，分析师周三表示，由于疫情造成需求低迷，大型生产商加大产量，全球石油市场4月可能出现创纪录的供应过剩，造成全球供过于求的局面，可能在几个月内令石油储存能力不堪重负，并迫使行业普遍停工。随着各国限制旅行和经济活动下降，原油已经大量涌入世界各地的陆海仓库。甚至在沙特、俄罗斯和其他产油国的一波供应冲击市场之前，库存水平就已经在上升，这些产油国正为争夺市场份额而打价格战。 美国基准原油CLc1周三跌至2002年4月以来最低，报每桶22.60美元，自年初以来已累计下跌逾60%。布伦特原油价格仅在3月份就下跌了近45%，这是自2008年金融和经济危机以来需求遭受的最严重打击。 一些投资者和分析师表示，随着库存达到极限，油价可能会跌至每桶10美元。上一次出现这种情况是在1998年石油供应过剩期间，之后石油公司和产油国都抑制了供应。 由于加拿大原油价格较美国西德克萨斯中质原油有大幅折扣，一些加拿大原油的交易价格已经接近每桶10美元。 能源咨询公司雷斯塔德石油市场主管称：“我们认为油价还未见最糟糕的情况，市场很快就会意识到，4月可能面临现代石油市场历史上最大的供应过剩之一。” IHS Markit的分析师估计，从2020年2月到5月，全球石油供应每月过剩在每天400万桶到1000万桶之间，相当于全球需求的4-10%。 裘寅 编译自 路透社 原文如下： Oil industry may fill global storage in months as record glut builds The oil market could see a record supply surplus in April as coronavirus wipes out demand and big producers pump more, creating a global glut that threatens to overwhelm storage capacity within months and force widespread industry shutdowns, analysts said on Wednesday.Crude is already gushing into storage at land and sea worldwide as countries curb travel and economic activity falls due to coronavirus. Storage levels are rising even before a wave of supply hits the market from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers who are gearing up to fight a price war for market share. U.S. benchmark crude CLc1 fell to its lowest since April 2002 at $22.60 a barrel on Wednesday, and is down more than 60 percent since the start of the year. Brent crude prices have fallen almost 45% in March alone, following the most pronounced demand destruction since the financial and economic crisis of 2008. As storage reaches capacity, a slide towards $10 per barrel is possible, according to some investors and analysts. That last happened during the 1998 glut before both oil companies and oil producing nations curbed supply. Some Canadian crude is already trading not far off $10 per barrel because of steep price discounts to U.S. benchmark WTI crude. “We believe we have not seen the worst of the price rout yet, as the market will soon come to realise that it may be facing one of the largest supply surpluses in modern oil market history in April,” said Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets Bjornar Tonhaguen. IHS Markit analysts estimated the global oil supply surplus on a monthly basis to range between 4 million barrels per day (bpd) and 10 million bpd from February to May 2020 - equal to 4-10% of global demand. |
