油价暴跌或将破坏全球生物燃料市场

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价3月19日报道，本月史无前例的油价暴跌席卷了整个能源行业乃至其他行业。从巴西到马来西亚，本周全球石油危机使全球生物燃料市场大受打击。在巴西，玉米乙醇行业一直是一个具有历史弹性的行业。一月份推出的“专注于气候变化新闻，分析和解决方案的新型跨平台编辑品牌” 彭博格林( Bloomberg Green) 本周早些时候在一份报告中表示，该行业经受住了货币螺旋式下跌、经济萎靡不振、原材料成本上涨和政治动荡。如今，巴西蓬勃发展的产业之一终于遇到了可能摧毁它的敌人：石油崩盘。

石油崩溃会对生物燃料产生负面影响，这在许多情况下是其直接竞争，这似乎是违反直觉的。这在巴西尤其如此，那里的大多数司机都有灵活燃料型汽车，这意味着他们的汽车可以像在传统汽油上一样容易地使用生物燃料。但是，大多数生物燃料都与普通汽油或柴油混合在一起，而低廉的能源价格却引起了整个市场的动荡。

彭博·格林解释INTL FCStone分析师Matheus Costa的话，以谷物为基础的生物燃料的利润率在戈伊亚斯州已经变为负值，该州有三分之一的工厂是以此为基础的，如果能源价格保持在目前的最低水平，最坏的情况还没有到来。

与此同时，在亚洲，出于同样的原因，生物燃料行业的形势也显得同样严峻。彭博社上周在另一篇报道中称：“原油价格的暴跌消除了棕榈油与柴油任意混合的可能性，并大幅推高了政府授权的成本。与化石燃料相比，生物燃料（例如柴油与棕榈的混合物）必须定价合理，以鼓励消费，而这通常需要补贴。”

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Oil Crash Could Destroy Global Biofuels Market

This month’s unprecedented oil crash has sent shockwaves through the entire energy industry and beyond. Biofuels markets across the world are reeling from the oil crash this week, from Brazil to Malaysia. In Brazil, the corn ethanol industry has been a historically resilient one. “It withstood a downward currency spiral, economic malaise, a jump in raw-material costs and political upheaval,” said a report earlier this week from Bloomberg Green, a “new multiplatform editorial brand focused on climate change news, analysis, and solutions” which debuted in January. “Now one of Brazil’s booming industries has finally met the foe that could take it down: the oil crash.”

It may seem counterintuitive that the oil crash would negatively impact biofuel, which in many cases is its direct competition. This is especially true in Brazil, where most drivers have flex-fuel vehicles, which means that their car could just as easily run on biofuel as it could on traditional gasoline. But most biofuel is blended in with regular gasoline or diesel, and low energy prices are causing turmoil across the board.

“Margins for the grain-based biofuel have already turned negative in Goias state, where a third of the nation’s plants are based,” said Bloomberg Green, paraphrasing the words of Matheus Costa, an analyst at INTL FCStone. And the worst is yet to come if energy prices stay as low as they are now.

Meanwhile, in Asia, things are looking similarly grim for the biofuel sector for all the same reasons. “Crude’s nosedive erases any chance of discretionary blending of palm oil with diesel, and drastically inflates the cost of government mandates,” reported Bloomberg’s main platform in a separate story last week. “Biofuels, such as a blend of diesel with palm, need to be attractively priced compared with fossil fuels to encourage consumption, and that often requires subsidies.”