|2020-04-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $33 in 2020
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected Brent crude prices to average $33 per barrel in 2020, down from $43 per barrel forecasted earlier.
The agency said in its latest energy outlook report the projection is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.
“Crude oil prices, in particular, have fallen significantly since the beginning of 2020, largely driven by the economic contraction caused by COVID-19 and a sudden increase in crude oil supply following the suspension of previously agreed upon production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries,” EIA said.
EIA expects Brent crude prices to average $23 per barrel during the second quarter of 2020 before increasing to $30per barrel during the second half of the year.
The agency forecasts that average Brent prices will increase to an average of $46 per barrel in 2021, lower by $10 forecasted last month, as declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.
It estimated global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to average around 94.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020, a decline of 5.6 million b/d from the same period in 2019.
EIA expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand to decrease by 5.2 million b/d in 2020 from an average of 100.7 million b/d last year before increasing by 6.4 million b/d in 2021.
Lower global oil demand growth projected in its latest energy outlook edition reflects growing evidence of significant disruptions to global economic activity along with reduced expected travel globally because of COVID-19.
EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories to grow by an average of 3.9 million b/d in 2020 after falling by about 0.2 million b/d in 2019.
Inventory builds are expected to be the largest in the first half of 2020, rising at a rate of 5.7 million b/d in the first quarter and increasing to builds of 11.4 million b/d in the second quarter as a result of widespread travel limitations and sharp reductions in economic activity.
Firmer demand growth as the global economy begins to recover and slower supply growth will contribute to global oil inventory draws beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020. EIA expects global liquid fuels inventories will decline by 1.7 million b/d in 2021.
The agency has forecasted the US to return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020.