美国石油产量已经见顶

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价4月10日报道，油价暴跌已经导致美国150多座钻井平台在短短三周内被拆除，导致新压裂井产量骤降。根据Rystad Energy和Qz.com的数据，今年新完工的在线油井数量可能降至逾十年来的最低水平，不到9000口。

目前，已经有7家石油和天然气公司申请破产，随着西德克萨斯中质原油价格跌破每桶30美元，这个数字可能还会大幅上升。

上周，美国石油日产量下降60万桶，这表明对产量的冲击已经开始显现。同时，由于需求突然下降，炼油厂不得不减少精炼产品的生产，这导致石油只能暂放在管道和油井口，二叠纪石油也出现了大幅折价。

美国能源信息署预测，石油产量可能在2020年下降50万桶/天，并可能在2021年下降70万桶/天。很明显，这一切都取决于价格。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)估计，如果油价维持在每桶30美元，到明年年底，美国每天可能损失400万桶石油。

不管怎样，美国石油产量已经见顶，考虑到资本市场对石油行业的负面影响，很难再回到这一水平。美国能源信息署称，美国将在今年晚些时候再次成为石油净进口国，结束美国作为石油净出口国的短暂时期(自1973年以来首次)。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Oil Production Has Already Peaked

1. New fracked wells plunge

- The collapse of oil prices has already led to the removal of more than 150 rigs in just three weeks.

- This year, the number of newly completed wells coming online could fall to its lowest level in more than a decade at less than 9,000, according to Rystad Energy and Qz.com.

- Already, seven oil and gas companies have filed for bankruptcy in 2020, a figure that could balloon with WTI under $30 per barrel.

- U.S oil production fell by 600,000 bpd last week, evidence that the hit to output has already begun.

2. U.S. oil production already peaked

- The U.S. EIA predicted that oil production could decline by 0.5 mb/d in 2020 and potentially by 0.7 mb/d in 2021.

- But, obviously, everything depends on price. Standard Chartered estimates that the U.S. could lose 4 mb/d by the end of next year if oil prices remain at $30 per barrel.

- Either way, U.S. oil production has peaked, and it will be difficult to climb back to these levels ever again, given how much capital markets have soured on the industry.

- The EIA said that the U.S. will once again become a net petroleum importer later this year, ending a brief spell in which the U.S. was a net exporter (for the first time since 1973).

3. Permian discounts spike

- With demand dropping suddenly, refineries have had to curtail the production of refined products. That has led to oil backed up in pipelines and at the wellhead.