加拿大或是受油价影响最大的产油国

中国石化新闻网讯 据油田技术4月13日报道，Rystad能源公司的一份分析报告显示，加拿大是迄今为止受影响最大的产油国，据估计，2020年第二季度停产损失将超过110万桶/天。

迄今为止，加拿大石油产量已经减少了32.5万桶/天，其次是伊拉克(30万桶/天)、和巴西(20万桶/天)。尽管美国也有可能关闭数十万桶的石油生产，但具体数字尚未正式公布，也未纳入统计中。

Rystad Energy资深分析师Thomas Liles表示："由于4月和5月北美需求严重受损，预计第二季加拿大西部油砂和重油产能可能削减超过110万桶/天，短期内还有进一步下滑的风险。"

Rystad对今年剩余时间的减产预估增至每日51.3万桶，第四季为每日29.3万桶。

今年3月，Rystad预测，按照当时的生产速度，加拿大西部的原油储备可能在本月底接近最大储能。自4月1日以来，加拿大基准油价的变动似乎证实了储存压力的日趋增大。过去一周，加拿大基准原油价格与西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的脱钩程度有所减轻。

中游企业的矛盾突显了存储容量的紧张以及由此带来的减产。最近上游企业也凸显了存储难题，几乎可以石油生产近期肯定会有更大幅度的削减。

邹勤 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Canada most affected by shut-ins so far, according to Rystad Energy

A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Canada is the oil producer most affected so far, with the damage estimated to reach above 1.1 million bpd in shut-in production in 2Q20.

Thus far, Canada is estimated to have shut-in oil production of at least 325 000 bpd, followed by Iraq (300 000 bpd) and Brazil (200 000 bpd). Although the US is also likely to be shutting-in hundreds of thousands of barrels of production as well, numbers are not yet official and are not included in our estimates.

“Due to the severity of demand destruction in North America in April and May, we estimate that shuttered oil sands and heavy oil curtailments in Western Canada could exceed 1.1 million bpd in 2Q020, with additional near-term downside risk,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Thomas Liles.

Rystad's curtailment forecasts for the rest of the year have increased to 513 000 bpd for 3Q20 and 293 000 bpd for 4Q20.

In March Rystad predicted that Western Canadian crude storage was likely to approach maximum capacity by the end of the month at then-current production rates. Movements in benchmark Canadian oil prices since 1 April appear to corroborate mounting pressure on in-basin storage capacity, with lighter Canadian benchmark prices decoupling from WTI over the past week.

Murmurings from midstream players have underscored the strain on storage capacity and the production cuts this has already brought. Recent communication from upstream players has also highlighted the storage conundrum and all but assured deeper near-term cuts.