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| 2020-04-22 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站4月20日消息 美国石油期货迅速暴跌，导致原油对天然气的溢价首次出现赤字。 如果情况属实，这可能会促使产油国在未来几个月内寻找天然气，而不是石油，特别是如果一旦疫情传播速度放缓、政府放松旅行限制、经济出现反弹以及天然气需求如预期恢复时。 然而，目前由于疫情导致能源需求消失、办公楼关闭、工厂产能减少，石油和天然气价格都大幅下跌。 自今年年初以来，由于疫情破坏需求和沙特与俄罗斯之间的价格战的共同影响，美国原油期货价格已暴跌逾150%，至每桶-37美元的创纪录低点。 与此同时，今年到目前为止，天然气期货价格下跌了约11%。 在过去几年里，美国能源公司把钻探的重点放在寻找更多的石油上，部分原因是原油比天然气更有价值。 在一些页岩油盆地，如德克萨斯州西部的二叠纪盆地和北达科他州的巴克肯盆地，这些原油的伴生气已经超过了地区管道基础设施的处理能力。这导致一些当地天然气价格转为负值，能源公司燃烧不需要的天然气。 周一，油气比（即石油与天然气的交易水平）降至-18:1。相比之下，今年1月份的天然气价格为6年来的31倍。按能源当量计算，石油的交易量应该是天然气的六倍。 鉴于原油价格下跌，分析师预计美国产油国将削减页岩盆地的石油钻探，这将使宾夕法尼亚州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州的马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡等其他盆地的气井产量更有价值。 这就是为什么天然气价格（上涨10%）和几家专注于天然气的能源公司（如Antero Resources Corp）（上涨22%）、CNX Resources Corp（上涨16%）和EQT Corp（上涨14%）的股价都在上涨的原因。 不过，路易斯安那州亨利中心基准的天然气期货仍有望在2020年降至1998年以来的最低年平均水平。 到2020年为止，原油的交易量约为天然气的22倍，这与2019年的平均值相同，相比之下，5年平均值（2014-2018年）是天然气的19倍。 吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工 原文如下： U.S. natgas trading at premium over oil after crude price collapse The rapid collapse of U.S. oil futures caused crude’s premium over natural gas to turn into a deficit for the first time ever. If it holds, that could prompt producers to search for gas instead of oil in future months - especially if gas demand recovers as expected when the economy snaps back after governments loosen travel restrictions once the coronavirus spread slows. For now, however, both oil and gas prices have plunged as the coronavirus causes energy demand to vanish as offices close and factories run at reduced capacities. Since the start of the year, U.S. crude futures have tumbled over 150% to a record low below minus $37 a barrel due to the combined impact of coronavirus demand destruction and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Gas futures, meanwhile, were down about 11% so far this year due primarily to the pandemic’s demand loss. Over the past several years, U.S. energy firms have focused their drilling on finding more oil in part because crude was much more valuable than gas. In some shale oil basins like the Permian in West Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota, that crude has come out of the ground with more associated gas than regional pipeline infrastructure could handle. That caused some local gas prices to turn negative and energy firms to flare or burn unwanted gas. The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, fell to minus 18-to-1 on Monday. That compares with a six-year high of 31 times over gas in January. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade six times over gas. Now that crude prices have dropped, analysts expect U.S. producers to cut oil drilling in shale basins, which should make output from gas wells in other basins, like the Marcellus and Utica in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio, more valuable. That’s why gas prices (up 10%) and the stocks of several gas-focused energy firms like Antero Resources Corp (up 22%), CNX Resources Corp (16%) and EQT Corp (up 14%) are rising. Gas futures at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana, however, are still on track to drop in 2020 to their lowest annual average since 1998. So far in 2020, crude has traded about 22 times over gas. That is the same as 2019’s average and compares with a five-year average (2014-2018) of 19 times over gas. |
