美国天然气期货价涨至九周高点

中国石化新闻网讯 据管道&天然气杂志网4月22日路透社报道，美国天然气期货周三涨逾6%，至九周高点，因市场预计未来几周天然气产量将下降，因近期美国原油价格暴跌，页岩盆地的钻探商关闭油井。那些油井生产大量的天然气。

纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 5月份交付的近月天然气期货价格上涨11.8美分，涨幅6.5%，收于每百万英热单位1.939美元。

与此同时，由于为减缓疫情而进行的封锁限制了全球对石油的需求，美国原油期货有望连续第三周下跌。 这使得美国合同在此期间下跌了50％以上。

然而，展望未来，2020年和2021年的天然气期货价格远高于最近一个月的价格，因为市场预计，一旦政府放松旅行和工作限制，随着经济复苏，需求将大幅上升。日历2021年连续30天超过2022年，连续20天超过2025年。

根据数据公司Refinitiv的数据显示，美国本土48个州的天然气产量周二跌至923亿立方英尺/天(bcfd)的四周低点，周一为93.1亿立方英尺/天。

从长远来看，据EIA预计，疫情影响将使美国的天然气日需求量（不包括出口）从2019年的创纪录的849.7 亿立方英尺降至2020年的日均837.9 亿立方英尺和2021年的812.4 亿立方英尺。若预测正确，这将是自2017年以来消费首次出现年度下降，也是自2006年以来需求首次连续两年下降。

据EIA预计，随着更多的美国液化天然气(LNG)出口工厂和输往墨西哥的管道投入使用，未来几年美国的液化天然气(LNG)和管道出口仍将创下新的纪录。然而，出口增长的速度已经低于该机构在大流行之前的预期。

EIA预计LNG日出口量将从2019年的创纪录的50亿立方英尺增长到2020年的70亿立方英尺和2021年的77亿立方英尺，而管道日出口量将从2019年的创纪录的78亿立方英尺增长到2020年的84亿立方英尺和2021年的86亿立方英尺。

短期内，随着天气转暖，据数据提供商Refinitiv预计，天气转暖，包括出口在内的48个州的天然气日需求将从本周的935亿立方英尺降至下周的889亿立方英尺。

根据Refinitiv的数据，由于今年迄今为止的温和天气和与冠状病毒相关的需求破坏，美国输往加拿大的管道出口已跌至30天平均24亿立方英尺/天，输往墨西哥的为49亿立方英尺/天，而1月份输往加拿大的管道出口约为35亿立方英尺/天，输往墨西哥的管道出口约为59亿立方英尺/天。

与此同时，据Refinitiv的数据显示，流向美国LNG出口码头的天然气量从周一的81亿立方英尺/天降至周二的77亿立方英尺/天的五周低点。

郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Futures Jump to 9-Week High as Output Slides

U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% to a nine-week high on Wednesday on expectations gas production will decline in coming weeks as drillers shut oil wells in shale basins due to the recent collapse of U.S. crude prices.

Those oil wells produce a lot of gas.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 11.8 cents, or 6.5%, to settle at $1.939 per million British thermal units.

U.S. crude futures, meanwhile, were on track to fall for a third week in a row as government lockdowns to slow the spread of coronavirus cut global demand for oil. That puts the U.S. contract down over 50% during that time.

Looking ahead, however, gas futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021were trading much higher than the front-month on expectations demand will jump as the economy snaps back once governments loosen travel and work restrictions. Calendar 2021 has traded over 2022 for 30 days in a row and over 2025 for 20 days.

Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped to a four-week low of 92.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday from 93.1 bcfd on Monday, according to data firm Refinitiv.

In the long term, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected coronavirus lockdowns will cut U.S. gas demand - not including exports - to an average of 83.79 bcfd in 2020 and 81.24 bcfd in 2021 from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019. If correct, that would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand falls for two consecutive years since 2006.

The EIA expects U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports will still hit fresh records in coming years as more LNG export plants and pipelines to Mexico enter service. The pace of that export growth, however, has slowed from what the agency expected before the pandemic.

The EIA projected LNG exports would rise from a record 5.0 bcfd in 2019 to 7.0 bcfd in 2020 and 7.7 bcfd in 2021, while pipeline exports will rise from a record 7.8 bcfd in 2019 to 8.4 bcfd in 2020 and 8.6 bcfd in 2021.

In the short term with the coming of milder weather, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 93.5 bcfd this week to 88.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder.

U.S. pipeline exports have dropped to a 30-day average of 2.4 bcfd to Canada and 4.9 bcfd to Mexico due to mild weather so far this year and coronavirus-related demand destruction, according to Refinitiv, down from around 3.5 bcfd to Canada and 5.9 bcfd to Mexico in January.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export terminals, meanwhile, fell to a five-week low of 7.7 bcfd on Tuesday from 8.1 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv.