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| 2020-04-27 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油田技术4月24日报道，Rystad能源公司的石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen表示，本周五石油价格略有上涨，随后又回到了有边际偏差的平稳水平。布伦特和西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)近月期货价格反映出的乐观情绪是不合理的，这两种原油目前都是6月20日的结算价格。6月份之前，市场将耗尽实际的存储容量，甚至是陆上的额定存储容量。 本周一，西德克萨斯中质原油5月合约在俄克拉何马州库欣交割，收于每桶- 37.63美元。这不是一个反常现象，因为当一份实物交割的商品合约接近结算，预计交割点的库存将耗尽时，商品价格将变为负值，买家将接受将原油运至或储存在其他地方（成本更高）。 本周全球库存即将满仓的紧迫性给市场敲响了最后的警钟，现货价格的下行压力未来将持续存在，甚至会蔓延到另一个领域——6月20日的布伦特原油期货，这是目前全球最高的原油价格品级。数周来，从北海到中东，布伦特原油期货的现货价格一直较洲际交易所布伦特原油期货价格低5至10美元，这已给全球石油生产商带来了比“表面上”的价格所显示的更大的痛苦。 无论是经济指标还是大宗商品基本面，都不足以证明当前的价格水平是合理的。唯一的理由是，上周美国原油库存增加1500万桶，增幅低于预期，这还是因为美国原油进口报告的滞后。 欧元区制造业和服务业pmi指数初值为0，表明欧洲正陷入二战以来最严重的经济衰退中。最新数据显示，4月20日原油隐含库存量仍大幅增加2630万桶，随着欧佩克+减产措施的生效，将降至5月20日的1440万桶。 快速推进一些削减的执行，对石油市场走向稳定是有帮助的，但规模还不够。因为，根据需求的削减量来估计，在5月份，石油储能将被耗尽。 石油市场将不可避免地会出现一波停产潮，以回到供需平衡水平。没有足够的存储空间不仅是一个理论问题，也是一个实际问题。除非更多的石油生产被停止，否则开采出来的石油将无处可储存。这意味着多个地点的石油生产将被迫关闭，这是石油行业从未见过或准备过的情况，也许这就是为什么当下措施应对缓慢。对生产商来说，一场巨大的冲击正在酝酿之中，除非他们对自愿减产做出更坚定的回应，否则将很快出现史上最大的能源危机。 邹勤 摘译自 油田技术 原文如下： Oil prices stabilise but storage crisis approaches Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, has supplied a daily market comment, as oil prices rose slightly today before returning to flatter levels with marginal deviations. "Today’s optimism reflected in the front month futures prices for Brent and WTI, both of which now are for settlement for the month of Jun-20, is not justified. The market will run out of practical storage capacity, and even the “nameplate” storage capacity onshore, before we get to June. We got a small dose of bizarre on Monday this week, when the May-20 contract for WTI delivered at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, closed at minus US$37.63/bbl. But it actually isn’t an anomaly – when a commodity contract with physical delivery is close to settle and storage is expected to be exhausted at the delivery point, the price of the commodity becomes negative for buyers to accept taking the crude to transport or store the crude (more expensively) elsewhere. We believe the market got the final wake-up call about the urgency of the soon-to-be-full storage situation globally this week, and we believe the downwards pressure on physical prices will continue before long. It will even spill over into the separate beast, Brent futures for Jun-20, which essentially is the highest crude price marker on the planet right now. Physical prices from the North Sea to the Middle East have for weeks traded at US$5-10 discounts to the ICE Brent futures, inflicting more economic pain on global oil producers already than what the Brent price “on the screen” suggests. No positive surprises for economic indicators nor commodity fundamentals justify the current price levels. The only is the less-horrendous-than-expected US crude stock build of 15 million bbl last week, due to lag in the US crude imports reporting. The flash PMIs for Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sector yesterday printed in the teens, suggesting the deepest European recession since WWII. Our latest oil market balances still show an enormous 26.3 million bpd implied stock build for Apr-20, now declining to 14.4 million bpd for May-20 as the OPEC+ cuts come into effect. Fast-forwarding of the start of some of the cuts, for instance mulled today by Kuwait, is helpful, but not enough. The real question for everyone in the market now, is whether those implied coming stock build numbers of 26 or 14 million bpd can be practically realised at all, because as our analysis show, we will essentially run out of storage capacity between early-May and end-of-May under our current demand loss estimates. As we see it, a wave of shut-ins is inevitable for the oil market to come closer to a balance. Not having enough storage is not only a theoretical problem but a practical one too. Unless more production shuts down, the extracted oil will literally have nowhere else to be stored. Which implies a forced shutdown across several locations. This is not something the industry has ever seen or ever been prepared for, maybe that is why we see a slow reaction. A major shock is brewing for producers and unless there is a firmer response from their side to voluntarily slash output, we will soon be discussing about the greatest energy crisis in history." |
