|2020-04-27 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
不过，大规模的供应过剩危机不会很快得到解决，这意味着西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)和全球基准布伦特原油(Brent crude)仍有进一步下跌的风险。炼油商正在寻找船只来储存汽油和航空燃油，而美国一家管道运营商正在寻找方法来释放管道空间来储存更多的原油，这显示了供应不平衡的严重程度。
由于仍没有明确的迹象显示需求复苏的时间，市场将面临长期的低迷局势，该行业需要几年的时间来恢复。世界银行(World Bank)表示，油价暴跌之后，将出现历史上最疲弱的复苏，而咨询公司Rystad Energy自3月初以来第四次下调了需求预期。
CMC Markets亚太区首席市场策略师麦卡锡（Michael McCarthy）表示：“鉴于交易区间较小，我们确实看到了一个更加稳定的环境。开始减产“非常有建设性意义”，短期内WTI的平均价格似乎在每桶15至20美元左右。”
截至伦敦时间上午7点29分，纽约商品交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) 6月份交割的WTI原油期货价格上涨2.6%，至每桶16.93美元。本周合约价格下跌了32%。12月原油期货与6月原油期货的溢价从本周早些时候的每桶15美元上方收窄至约12美元，表明市场对供应过剩的担忧正略有缓解。
王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone
Oil Steadies as Attention Turns to Cuts
After a dramatic week that saw prices plunge below zero for the first time in history, oil continued to claw back losses as attention turned to output cuts in response to the demand hit from coronavirus lockdowns.
New York futures for June delivery rose for a fourth day toward $17 a barrel after the May contract fell as low as -$40.32 on Monday before expiring the next day. U.S. operators have already started to shut in old wells and halt new drilling, actions that could reduce output by 20%, while Kuwait and Algeria said they are reducing production earlier than required to under the OPEC+ deal.
The massive glut won’t be cleared quickly, however, meaning West Texas Intermediate and global benchmark Brent crude are still at risk of further declines. In a sign of how severe the supply imbalance is, refiners are hunting for vessels to store gasoline and jet fuel, while an American pipeline operator is looking at ways to free up space on its conduits to store more crude.
With still no clear indication of when demand might recover, the market is set for a prolonged slump that will reshape the industry for years to come. Oil’s collapse will be followed by the weakest recovery in history, according to the World Bank, while consultancy Rystad Energy revised down its demand estimates for a fourth time since early March.
“It does look like, given the smaller trading ranges, that we are seeing a more stable environment,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific. The start of production cuts is “very constructive” and the equilibrium price for WTI in the shorter term seems to be around $15 to $20 a barrel, he said.
WTI crude for June delivery rose 2.6% to $16.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:29 a.m. in London. The contract is down 32% for the week. The premium of the December futures over June narrowed to around $12 a barrel from higher than $15 earlier in the week, indicating concern over the glut is easing slightly.
Brent crude for June settlement climbed 1.4% to $21.63 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after advancing 4.7% on Thursday.?