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| 2020-04-30 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据4月28日OGJ 报道，Rystad能源公司在分析了来自大陆资源公司、Cimarex能源公司、康菲石油公司、PDC能源公司、欧芹能源公司（ParsleyEnergy）和Enerplus公司的信息后表示，美国5月和6月的石油减产量可能至少达到30万桶/天，较4月预计的约10万桶/天有所增加。 有几家生产商特别提到了由于油井关闭而导致的产量下降，而另外一些生产商则没有具体说明减产原由。 Rystad Energy估计，页岩油生产商将通过减少新投产油井数量的方式，尽可能地兑现已宣布的减产承诺。因此，基数下降可能是报告中产量削减的一个重要部分。然而，考虑到典型的页岩作业模式，从3月份开始的开工数量下降，将导致5月份投产的油井数量减少，最终在6月份之前并不会导致产量峰值的下降。 因此，考虑到目前市场形势的严峻程度以及4月份已经宣布的大规模减产协议，页岩油生产商也可能会采取关井措施，以使市场恢复平衡。 大陆资源公司采取了迄今为止最激烈举措。预计4月份该公司原油日产量将减少约6.9万桶/天，然后在2020年5月和6月减少近15万桶/天。未来几周，可能会有更多公司采取类似行动。 康菲石油表示，将大幅削减48个州的石油产量。该公司表示，5月份将削减12.5万桶/天，预计该公司的石油净产量为6万桶/天。巴肯油田预计将是减产的主要地区之一。康菲石油还表示，将逐月解决减产的需求，这暗示着减产很可能持续很长一段时间。 由于油价疲软，Cimarex Energy已决定将5月份的产量削减30%，约2.7万桶/天。同样，PDC能源公司计划将5月和6月的产量减少30%，该公司还计划在第三季度保持一定水平的减产，并在第四季度取消减产。因此，预计2020年5月和6月PDC能源石油日产量将减少2.7万桶。 尽管欧芹能源公司没有就未来几个月的减产给出明确的指导，但其首席执行官马特·加拉格尔(Matt Gallagher)在4月初曾提到，为了应对当前的市场状况，该公司已开始关闭400口“产量较低的油井”。并预计，从4月到6月，油井关闭的产能可能占到公司的20%，即每天2.2万桶。 Enerplus表示，该公司已开始暂时关闭威利斯顿盆地的部分油井。4月份的产量预计将受到关井活动的轻微影响。该公司预计，5月份将减少更多的产量，以应对油价下跌。 据估计，已发布声明的公司的减产将遍及美国48个州，但威利斯顿盆地的产量可能受到的影响最大。其中巴肯油田在总产量中占有很高的份额，其次是特拉华州二叠纪盆地。 王佳晶 摘译自 OGJ 原文如下： US oil shut-in at least 300,000 b/d during May and June US oil production cuts in May and June could amount to at least 300,000 b/d, an increase from about 100,000 b/d of cuts projected for April, said Rystad Energy after analyzing communication from Continental Resources, Cimarex Energy, ConocoPhillips, PDC Energy, Parsley Energy, and Enerplus Corp. Several producers have specifically mentioned production declines as a result of well shut-ins, while others did not specify whether production curtailments would come naturally as a result of a reduction in new wells put on production, or from shut-ins of already producing wells. Rystad Energy currently estimates that shale producers will try to deliver on announced cuts as much as possible by reducing the number of new wells put into production. Thus, base decline could provide a material portion of the reported cut. However, given typical shale operational patterns, the decline in started jobs that began in March will result in a lower number of wells put on production in May, which ultimately will not lead to a drop in peak production until June. Therefore, given the severity of the current market situation and the significant production curtailments announced already in April, shale producers are also likely to implement well shut-ins to bring the market into balance. Continental Resources stands out as having taken the most drastic action thus far. About 69,000 b/d is expected to be reduced from Continental in April, followed by a cut of almost 150,000 b/d in May and June 2020. More companies are likely to follow with similar actions over the next few weeks. ConocoPhillips said it will make significant production curtailments across its portfolio in the Lower 48. The company mentioned 125,000 boe/d of gross output will be curtailed during the month of May, estimated at 60,000 b/d of oil net to the company. As with Continental, the Bakken play is anticipated to be one of the primary regions for production cuts. ConocoPhillips also said it would be addressing the need for production curtailments month-by-month, hinting that cuts could easily be prolonged into the future. Cimarex Energy has elected to cut its May output by 30% or around 27,000 b/d due to the weakness in realized prices. Similarly, PDC Energy plans to reduce its May and June output by up to 30% as a result of production curtailments. The company also assumes that a certain level of reductions will be maintained in the third quarter and eliminated by the fourth quarter. The production cut for PDC Energy is thus estimated at 27,000 b/d in May and June 2020. While Parsley has not provided a clear guidance on production curtailments over the next few months, its chief executive, Matt Gallagher, mentioned in early April that the company has begun to shut in 400 “lower-producing wells” in response to current market conditions. Rystad Energy estimates that such shut-ins could account for about 20% of Parsley output, or 22,000 b/d from April to June. Enerplus said it started to temporarily shut in selected wells across the Williston basin. April production is expected to be modestly impacted by shut-in activity, but the company expects to shut in more production in May in response to weaker oil pricing. “The estimated cuts from companies which have already made statements will be spread across the Lower 48 states, but production in the Williston basin will likely be affected the most. The Bakken play accounts for a high share of combined output, closely followed by Permian Delaware. |
