|2020-05-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
李峻 编译自 油价网
Global Oil Demand Could Take Years To Recover
Global oil demand will take at least a year--and probably much longer--to return to the pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Gulf Intelligence in an interview on Wednesday.
The pace at which demand will come back will mostly depend on global economic growth and the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which could warrant a return to stricter lockdowns, Birol said.
The IEA said in its April Oil Market Report that the coronavirus pandemic had wiped out a decade of oil demand growth amid the unprecedented lockdown measures in many countries to curb the spreading of the virus. In mid-April, the IEA expected global oil demand to drop by 29 million bpd in April, and by a record 9.3 million bpd year on year in 2020.
April was indeed a ‘black April’ for the oil markets and the industry, Birol told Gulf Intelligence, recalling the first-ever drop of WTI Crude futures into negative territory.
According to Birol, the agency still expects global oil demand to fall this year, despite the lifting of blockades in many countries.
Asked about the fate of the U.S. shale patch, which is reducing oil production for economic reasons due to unsustainably low oil prices, Birol expressed optimism that after the crisis, when demand returns to some form of normality, U.S. shale will rise again.
“Shale will come back, maybe slowly but I think one of the lessons to learn from this period is that it will be too quick to write the obituary of shale oil,” the head of the IEA told Gulf Intelligence.