IEA:今年印度的石油产品需求将下降8%

中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网5月23日新德里报道，据国际能源署（IEA）在其5月份石油市场报告中称，预计今年印度的石油产品需求将下降8％，至459.7万桶/天。

EIA表示，我们预计，今年第一季度，石油需求同比减少18万桶/天，第二季度将减少130万桶/天。到今年第四季度，消费应该会恢复到一年前的水平。总之，预计今年印度的石油日需求将下降41.5万桶。受影响最大的将是轻油/柴油和汽油。

预计今年第二季度，该国的汽油日需求将减少35万桶，这主要是由于交通限制。 该机构预计，与去年同期相比，4月和5月的汽油需求将同比下降60％。

EIA 表示，预计柴油需求今年第二季度将减少69万桶/天，航空涡轮燃料(ATF)和煤油需求预计在4月至5月将下降近40%，因为大约一半的煤油需求被用作航空燃料，并将受到航空公司限制的严重影响。

总之，预计今年印度的石油日需求将降至460万桶，而2019年的日需求量为501万桶。该机构预计，今年该国内原油产量将继续下降。

IEA表示，该国最大的几家生产商称，在成熟的油田，水资源削减增加，油井表现不佳是造成短缺的主要原因。由于Covid-19封锁，限制工人进入陆上油田也是一个因素。

根据这份报告，未来几个月原油日产量将保持低迷，预计今年将降至75万桶，而2019年为80万桶。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

India's petroleum product demand to fall 8 per cent in 2020: IEA

India’s petroleum product demand is expected to fall by eight per cent to 4,597 thousand barrels per day in 2020, International Energy Agency (IEA) said as part of its May oil market report.

“We expect oil demand to fall by 180 kb/d y-o-y in 1Q20 and 1.3 mb/d in 2Q20. Consumption should return to year-ago levels by 4Q20. Overall, Indian demand is expected to drop by 415 kb/d in 2020. Gasoil/diesel and gasoline will be the most affected,” IEA said.

The country's petrol demand is projected to fall by 350 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020, primarily due to mobility restrictions. The agency has projected petrol demand to fall 60 per cent year-on-year in April as well as May, as compared to the year ago period.

Diesel demand is projected to contract by 690 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020 and demand for aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and kerosene is projected to decline by almost 40 per cent in April-May, as roughly half of the kerosene demand is used as jet fuel and will be severely impacted by airline restrictions, IEA said.

Overall, India’s oil demand is expected to fall to 4.60 million barrels per day in 2020, as compared to 5.01 million barrels per day recorded in 2019. The agency expects domestic crude oil production to continue to decline in 2020.

“The country’s largest producers cite increased water cuts and underperformance of wells at mature fields as key reasons for the shortfall. Restrictions on the movements of workers to onshore fields due to the Covid-19 lockdown was also a factor,” IEA said.

According to the report, crude oil production will remain subdued in the coming months and is projected to decline to 0.75 million barrels per day in 2020, as compared to 0.80 million barrels per day recorded in 2019.