全球油气勘探活动能够持续到2050年以后

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日石油2020年5月21日报道，全球主要石油和天然气勘探公司近日表示，尽管疫情和油价下跌已导致企业调整他们的前景和未来投资计划，全球油气勘探活动预计将至少能够持续30年，持续到2050年以后。

然而，全球油气勘探公司对未来的挑战有着敏锐的意识——保持可供投资的竞争，提高资本效率的需要，以及深水勘探提出的机遇和风险。

全球著名行业分析公司伍德麦肯兹在其《勘探调查的未来2020》报告中得出的长期勘探前景预计年度资源增加大约200亿桶油当量，其中新增天然气资源至少占50%，高度依赖新的远景区和高影响井，石油巨头和国家石油公司至少占75%的市场份额，而油田在布伦特原油每桶50美元价格时盈利。

南美洲国家圭亚那海上油田位于面积达660万英亩的斯塔布鲁克区块内，埃克森美孚公司与其合作伙伴已在该区块内发现了80多亿桶油当量的油田，这些油田的盈亏平衡点往往较低，这使得圭亚那成为全球最具吸引力的深水远景区之一。

伍德麦肯兹表示，随着石油公司在COVID-19疫情大流行引发的行业动荡中举步艰难，勘探公司被迫做出选择，并优先开发他们最高质量的油田，比如圭亚那和苏里南的深水海上油田。

世界各国政府已经宣布了各种旨在帮助油气勘探公司的措施。这种务实态度对油气勘探行业是一种鼓舞。

伍德麦肯兹的安德鲁·莱瑟姆、克里斯蒂娜·比德尔和戴维·帕金森指出：“油气勘探行业仍希望并需要钻取初探井，但由于预算大幅削减，且疫情带来大量作业困难，放松财政条款和在承诺方面更大的灵活性只能有所帮助。”

深海勘探预计将继续在圭亚那海上进行，那里仍有很高的发现更多世界级油田的潜力。

诺布尔能源公司负责商业的高级副总裁Robert Eifler曾在3月份表示：“关于圭亚那，已经

提交了31口井的勘探计划，包括位于多产的斯塔布鲁克区块附近区块的井。”

李峻 编译自 今日石油

原文如下：

Global exploration has more than 30 years of life left

Major oil and gas explorers around the world expect at least three decades of exploration still to come and see this lasting beyond 2050 even as the global COVID-19 pandemic and slashed oil prices have caused companies to readjust their outlook and future investment plans.

There was, however, a keen awareness of the challenges ahead – the fight to remain investible, the need to increase capital efficiency and the opportunities and risks presented by deepwater exploration.

The long-term exploration outlook as captured in The Future of Exploration Survey 2020 conducted by industry analyst Wood Mackenzie anticipates annual resource additions of around 20 billion boe, more appetite for gas (at least 50% resource), high dependence on new plays and high impact wells, oil majors and NOCs ‘market share’ of at least 75% and fields turning a profit at US$50 Brent.

Fields offshore the South American country of Guyana at the 6.6 million acres Stabroek Block where operator ExxonMobil has already found more than 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent tend to have lower breakevens making Guyana one of the most attractive deepwater plays in the world.

With oil companies reeling from industry shocks triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, WoodMac says explorers are being forced to choose and are prioritising their highest-quality plays, such as deepwater offshore Guyana and Suriname.

Governments around the world have announced various measures aimed at helping exploration. This pragmatism is encouraging for the exploration sector.

“The industry still wants and needs to drill wildcats but with budgets heavily cut, and with a myriad of operational difficulties arising from the Covid-19 pandemic, easing of fiscal terms and greater flexibility with regard to commitments can only help,” WoodMac’s Andrew Latham, Kristina Beadle, and David Parkinson point out.

Deepwater exploration is expected to continue in earnest offshore Guyana where potential for more world-class discoveries remain high.

“With respect to Guyana, exploration plans have been filed covering 31 wells, including wells located in blocks adjacent to the prolific Stabroek block,” Robert Eifler, Senior Vice President, Commercial at Noble Corporation said in March.