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| 2020-10-26 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网伦敦报道，国际货币基金组织(IMF)10月19日在其对中东和中亚地区经济前景的更新报告中表示，明年油价预计不会有太大增加，将保持在每桶40 - 50美元之间，这将给中东石油出口国施加额外的压力。 中东和中亚地区今年的国内生产总值（GDP）将下降4.1%，比IMF今年4月的预测向下修正了1.3个百分点。根据IMF的预测，中东和北非地区石油出口国今年的经济将遭受更大的冲击，将萎缩6.6%。 海湾合作委员会(GCC)的6个成员国——巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——今年的经济在2021年将增长2.3%以前将下滑6.0%。 由于油价暴跌和冠状病毒疫情大流行对沙特阿拉伯造成了沉重打击，这个世界最大石油出口国第二季度经济萎缩了7%，而失业率创下了历史新高。 IMF表示，全球复苏前景黯淡以及油价低迷，将继续对中东石油出口国的经常账户构成压力。IMF补充称，下行风险继续盛行且前景黯淡。 IMF说，“就中短期而言，供应过剩和库存庞大仍令人担忧，而航空运输量低(尽管道路运输量正在复苏)继续抑制需求。”石油期货曲线显示，中期内油价预计将升至每桶48美元(2020年为每桶41美元)，仍比2019年平均水平低大约25%。 IMF中东和中亚部主任杰哈德?阿祖尔19日告诉CNBC，“IMF对明年年初油价的预测是在每桶40美元到45美元之间，2021年的平均油价将在每桶40至50美元之间。” 例如，IMF曾估计，沙特阿拉伯2020年的财政收支平衡价格为每桶78.20美元。 李峻 编译自 油价网 原文如下： IMF Sees Oil Prices At $40-50 Next Year Oil prices are not expected to rise much next year, and will stay in the $40-50 a barrel range, putting additional pressure on the oil exporters in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Monday in its update on the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. Gross domestic product in the region is set to drop by 4.1 percent this year, a downward revision of 1.3 percentage points compared with IMF’s forecast in April 2020. The economies in the oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa are expected to suffer more and shrink by 6.6 percent this year, according to the IMF. The six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—will see their economies slump by 6.0 percent in 2020, before rising by 2.3 percent in 2021. In Q2, the economy of Saudi Arabia shrank by 7 percent, with the unemployment rate hitting a record high as the combined effect of the oil price crash and the coronavirus pandemic hit the world’s largest oil exporter hard. Subdued prospects for global recovery and subdued oil prices will continue putting pressure on current accounts of the Middle East oil exporters, the IMF said. Downside risks continue to prevail and clouds the outlook, the fund added. “In the near and medium term, oversupply and large inventories remain concerns, while demand continues to be dampened by low air traffic volume (despite recovering road traffic). Oil futures curves indicate that prices are expected to increase toward $48 a barrel in the medium term (from $41 for 2020), remaining some 25 percent below the 2019 average,” the IMF noted. “The projections for oil prices are in the corridor between $40 to $45 for ... early next year, and will be between $40 to $50” on average in 2021, Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, told CNBC on Monday. The fiscal breakeven price of Saudi Arabia, for example, is $78.20 a barrel for 2020, the fund has estimated. |
