美国天然气价格跃升至20个月高点

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站10月21日消息 因液化天然气出口增加和产量减少，美国天然气期货价格周三攀升逾4%，至20个月新高。截至美国东部时间上午8:47（格林尼治标准时间12：47），天然气期货价格上涨13.5美分（4.6%），至3.048美元/每百万英热单位，这是该合约自2019年1月以来首次涨逾3美元，较9月21日1.795美元的近期低点上涨约70%。

　　数据提供商Refinitiv表示，截至目前，美国48个州的平均日产量为862亿立方英尺，这将是2018年9月以来最低的一个月。相比之下，9月份为872亿立方英尺/天，2019年11月为954亿立方英尺/天，为四个月来的最低点。在产量下降之际，今年早些时候由于冠状病毒对需求的破坏，导致能源公司关闭油气井，并大幅削减新钻井，以至于新油井的产量不再抵消现有油井的下降。

　　随着液化天然气出口增加和天气转冷，Refinitiv预计平均需求量将从本周的900亿立方英尺/天飙升至下周的977亿立方英尺/天。到目前为止，10月工厂的平均输气量为70亿立方英尺/天。这将是自4月份以来的一个月来量最多的一次，将使出口有望连续第三个月增长。自2月份原料气达到创纪录的87亿立方英尺/天以来，全球天然气价格不断上涨，促使买家取消货物取。

　　在现货市场上，由于阿尔伯塔省的天气比正常天气冷，而加利福尼亚北部的天气比正常天气热，AECO枢纽NG-ASH-ALB-SNL和PG&E Gate NG-CG-PGE-SNL的次日天然气均升至2019年3月以来的最高水平。

　　吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. natgas jumps to 20-month high over $3 on rising LNG exports

　　U.S. natural gas futures climbed over 4% to a fresh 20-month high on Wednesday as LNG exports rise and output eases. Front-month gas futures rose 13.5 cents, or 4.6%, to $3.048 per million British thermal units at 8:47 a.m. EDT (1247 GMT). That is the first time the contract rose over $3 since January 2019 and puts the contract up about 70% from a recent low of $1.795 on Sept. 21.

　　Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, which would be its lowest month since September 2018. That compares with a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut oil and gas wells and cut back on new drilling by so much that output from new wells no longer offsets existing well declines.

　　As LNG exports rise and the weather turns colder, Refinitiv projected average demand would jump from 90.0 bcfd this week to 97.7 bcfd next week. The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants has averaged 7.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September. That would be the most in a month since April and puts exports on track to rise for a third month in a row for the first time since February when feedgas hit a record 8.7 bcfd as rising global gas prices prompt buyers to reverse cargo cancellations.

　　In the spot market, next-day gas rose to its highest since March 2019 at both the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL and PG&E Gate NG-CG-PGE-SNL because of colder-than-normal weather in Alberta and hotter-than-normal weather in Northern California.