石油需求前景不容乐观

中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社11月8日报道，对欧佩克来说，这应该是一个局势趋于正常的时期。第一波疫情过后，石油需求复苏，再加上美国产量大幅下滑，意味着世界需要更多的产油国的原油。但事实并非如此。

新冠肺炎疫情的爆发正威胁着已经停滞的石油需求复苏逆转。与此同时，供应量正从各种各样的来源增加，而这些来源又无法控制，这使得欧佩克有点焦头烂额。

今年6月，欧佩克预计其成员国对原油的需求将比去年12月的预测高出100多万桶/天。到10月份，该组织已将这一预期日产量下调了375万桶，大约相当于该组织第二大成员国伊拉克的日产量。

由于西方世界未能有效应对疫情，欧洲各国——从英国、法国到希腊，对国内出行实施了新一轮限制，包括关闭酒吧、餐馆和非必需品商店以及限制旅行等措施。人们还担心，在美国经历了疯狂的选举集会和投票后的抗议活动后，病毒感染病例可能会再次飙升，削弱美国的石油需求。

周四，英格兰进入了为期四周的封锁。尽管这些限制措施没有3月份实施的那么严厉，例如，学校和一些企业仍然开放，但城市街道上的交通已经大幅下降。虽然降幅不太可能像第一次封锁期间那么大，因为那些可以出行的人会避开公共交通，而选择私家车，但降幅仍将对石油消费产生明显影响。

寒冷的冬季可能有助于支持燃料需求，但其中很少会以石油的形式出现。在英国，液体燃料并没有被广泛用于取暖。在德国，液体燃料更为常见，消费者已经在冬天之前储备了燃料，他们可能会在明年1月开始征收碳税之前购买充足的燃料。周一，德国实施了部分封锁措施。

即使在经济活动和石油需求正更快恢复到疫情前水平的亚洲，产油国仍在等待更多的市场。日本是亚洲地区仅次于中国和印度的第三大石油消费国，自2019年初以来，日本已将原油进口削减了逾三分之一。其中，来自波斯湾五大原油出口国的进口下降了近一半。

今年剩余时间里，中国的石油进口可能会保持在当前水平附近。欧佩克产油国还面临着意想不到的竞争，竞争既来自该组织外部，也来自该组织内部。

在美国，随着钻井速度的提高和飓风减弱，石油产量有望在短期内回升。自8月22日以来，墨西哥湾连续遭遇风暴，导致该地区的日产量平均减少了50多万桶。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Prices Are Only Going in One Direction

This was supposed to be a time when things were getting closer to normal for OPEC. A recovery in oil demand after the first wave of the pandemic, coupled with a deep slump in U.S. production, was meant to leave the world needing more of its members’ crude. But it isn’t turning out like that.

Two things have conspired against the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The coronavirus outbreak is threatening to put an already stalling recovery in oil demand into reverse. At the same time, supply is rising from a variety of sources over which it has no control.

Back in June, OPEC projected that demand for crude from its members would be more than 1 million barrels a day higher than it had forecast in December — before Covid-19 even had a name. By October, it had slashed that estimate by 3.75 million barrels a day, or about as much as is pumped by the group’s second-largest member, Iraq.

The world’s failure to deal effectively with the pandemic has seen countries across Europe — from the U.K. and France to Greece — impose a fresh round of restrictions on their populations, including measures such as closing bars, restaurants and non-essential shops and limiting travel. There are concerns, too, that virus cases could spike again in the U.S. after a frenzy of election rallies and post-poll protests, prompting more stay-at-home orders and sapping oil demand there.

On Thursday, England entered a four-week lockdown. Although the restrictions aren’t as severe as those imposed in March — schools and some businesses, for example, remain open — traffic on city streets has already fallen sharply. It is unlikely to drop as far as it did during the first lockdown, as those who can travel shun public transport in favor of private cars, but the decline will still have a measurable impact on oil consumption.

Cold winter weather may help to support fuel demand, but little of that will be in the form of oil. Liquid fuel is not widely used for heating in the U.K. In Germany, where it is more common, consumers have already stocked up ahead of winter — although they may top up tanks ahead of a carbon tax that comes into effect in January. The government there imposed a partial lockdown on Monday.

Even in Asia, where economic activity and oil demand is returning more quickly to pre-pandemic levels, producers are still waiting to see the full benefit. Japan, the region’s third-biggest oil consumer behind China and India, has slashed crude imports by more than one-third since the start of 2019. Imports from the five big crude exporting countries in the Persian Gulf have fallen by almost half.

Its oil imports are likely to remain sluggish near current levels for the rest of year, because refiners have had to import contracted crude volumes despite low fuel demand. That’s resulted in a build-up of stockpiles that will take time to draw down.

The OPEC oil producers are also facing unexpected competition, both from outside the group and within it.

In the U.S., production is expected to pick up in the short term as drilling rates rise and hurricanes abate. A succession of storms crossing the Gulf of Mexico have reduced output there by more than 500,000 barrels a day on average since August 22.