EIA预计今明两年美国天然气批发价格将上涨

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站1月13日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）在其2021年1月的短期能源展望中预测，2021年亨利中心的天然气年现货价格将上涨0.98美分/每百万英热单位，平均为3.01美元/每百万英热单位。

　　EIA预计，干天然气产量在2021年3月达到873亿立方英尺/天的月度低点后，天然气价格上涨将促使干天然气产量在2021年下半年增加。 EIA年度预测干天然气产量将从2020年的平均908亿立方英尺/天下降到2021年的882亿立方英尺/天。自2020年初以来，由于天然气和原油价格低迷，天然气产量下降。

　　EIA预计，2021年美国天然气消费量将下降23亿立方英尺/天，至808亿立方英尺/天。下降的主要原因是天然气价格上涨，使得电力行业消耗的天然气减少了35亿立方英尺/天。天然气价格上涨将导致天然气向煤炭燃料的转换，并导致2021年预期的可再生能源发电能力增加带来更多来自可再生能源的竞争。EIA预测，2022年，电力行业的天然气消费量将再下降17亿立方英尺/天，平均为264亿立方英尺/天。

　　EIA预计，由于预期经济增长（基于IHS Markit经济预测）和略冷的冬季天气（基于国家海洋和大气管理局预测），工业、住宅和商业行业的天然气消耗量将略有增加。

　　EIA预计，2021年和2022年天然气出口量将继续超过天然气进口量。EIA预测，2021年天然气管道出口和液化天然气出口将几乎相等：管道出口增加6亿立方英尺/天，至86亿立方英尺/天，液化天然气出口增加20亿立方英尺/天，至85亿立方英尺/天。

　　吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

　　原文如下：

　　EIA expects higher wholesale U.S. natural gas prices in 2021, 2022

　　In its January 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the annual natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub will rise 0.98￠ /MMBtu to average $3.01/MMBtu in 2021.

　　EIA expects higher natural gas prices will prompt dry natural gas production to increase in the second half of 2021, after reaching a monthly low of 87.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March 2021. On an annual basis, EIA forecasts that dry natural gas production will decline from an average of 90.8 Bf3d in 2020 to 88.2 Bf3d in 2021. Since early 2020, natural gas production has fallen amid low natural gas and crude oil prices.

　　EIA expects that U.S. natural gas consumption will decline by 2.3 Bf3d to 80.8 Bf3d in 2021. The decline is primarily driven by a 3.5 Bf3d decrease in natural gas consumed in the electric power sector because of higher natural gas prices. Higher natural gas prices would lead to natural gas-to-coal fuel switching and to more competition from renewable generation sources from expected renewable capacity additions in 2021. EIA forecasts natural gas consumption in the electric power sector to decline by another 1.7 Bf3d to average 26.4 Bf3d in 2022.

　　EIA expects slight increases in natural gas consumption in the industrial, residential, and commercial sectors because of expected economic growth (based on IHS Markit economic forecasts) and slightly cooler winter weather (based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts).

　　EIA expects natural gas exports to continue to exceed natural gas imports in both 2021 and 2022. EIA forecasts that in 2021, natural gas pipeline exports and LNG exports will be nearly equal: exports by pipeline increase 0.6 Bf3d to 8.6 Bf3d and LNG exports increase 2.0 Bf3d to 8.5 Bf3d.