2020年天然气价格年涨幅达16%

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网1月13日报道，天然气这种大宗商品在2020年的波动性很大。纽约商品交易所的天然气价格在2020年6月底跌至1.43美元/百万英热，11月升至3.39美元/百万英热，最终在今年结束时跌至2.53美元/百万英热，标志着年度涨幅达到16%。

　　由于多重商品交易所（MCX）的天然气价格反映了纽约商品交易所的价格，国内股票交易所的波动也类似。MCX的天然气价格在2020年上涨了17%，12月31日的价格为每百万英热单位182.1卢比。

　　2020年，美国天然气发电量增加。天然气是美国发电的主要来源之一，在过去五年里，天然气的使用一直很大。2015-2019年，美国东北部地区天然气发电厂的年发电量增加31%，中部地区增加20%，南部地区增加17%。在美国大陆西部地区，同期天然气发电厂的发电量相对持平。截至2020年11月，美国中部、南部和东北部地区通过天然气发电厂发电的发电量与此相当。

　　尽管通过天然气发电的努力值得称赞，但美国液化天然气出口的增加也对天然气价格的上涨起到了重要作用，而在2020年，全世界都在与疫情作斗争。

　　预计去年11月液化天然气出口超过了2020年1月创下的纪录。据12月美国能源情报署(EIA)估计，11月美国液化天然气日出口量达到94亿立方英尺，占液化天然气出口产能利用率峰值的93%。

　　据美国能源信息署(EIA)表示，几个因素促成了最近几个月美国液化天然气出口的增长。亚洲和欧洲的国际天然气和液化天然气价格上涨，由于新冠疫情限制放宽后全球天然气需求增加，以及澳大利亚、马来西亚、卡塔尔、挪威、尼日利亚和特立尼达和多巴哥出口设施的计划外中断导致全球供应下降。2020年美国新增LNG日出口能力27亿立方英尺，而受飓风和年度维护影响的几个美国LNG终端也恢复了LNG的运输。

　　另一方面，据EIA估计，截至2020年12月25日，储存的工作天然气储量为3.46万亿立方英尺。库存较前一年年同期高出2510亿立方英尺，较5年平均水平(3.254万亿立方英尺)高出2060亿立方英尺。

　　3.46万亿立方英尺的总工作天然气处于5年的历史范围内，这清楚地表明库存状况良好。

　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下：

Natural gas price headed towards $3/MMBTU in a month

Natural gas is a commodity that has been heavily volatile in 2020. NYMEX natural gas prices made a low of $1.43/MMBTU in late June 2020, a high of $3.39/MMBTU in November 2020, and finally ended the year at $2.53/MMBTU, marking an annual gain of 16 per cent.

Since MCX's natural gas prices are a mirror reflection of NYMEX rates, the volatility was similar on the domestic bourse. MCX natural gas prices were up 17 per cent in 2020, settling at Rs.182.1 per MMBTU on December 31.

Electricity generation via natural gas increased in the US in 2020.

The use of natural gas, which is one of the main sources of generating electricity in the US, has been substantial in the past five years. Annual electricity generation from natural gas power plants in the US increased 31 per cent in the northeastern region, 20 per cent in the central region, and 17 per cent in the southern region between 2015 and 2019. In the western region of the continental United States, electric power generation from natural gas power plants remained relatively flat during the same period. Through November 2020, the central, southern and northeastern regions have generated similar amounts of electricity from natural gas power plants.

While the electricity generation efforts via gas was commendable, the increase in LNG exports from the US also played a significant role for the rise in natural gas prices, while the world grappled with the pandemic in 2020.

In November, estimated LNG exports surpassed the previous record set in January 2020. In December 2020, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that November US LNG exports reached 9.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), which was 93 per cent of peak LNG export capacity utilization.

Several factors contributed to the increase in the US LNG exports in recent months. International natural gas and LNG prices increased in Asia and Europe with an increase in global natural gas demand after easing of COVID-19 restrictions and a fall in global supply due to unplanned outages at export facilities in Australia, Malaysia, Qatar, Norway, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago. New US LNG export capacity of 2.7 Bcf/d was added in 2020, whereas several US LNG terminals, affected by hurricanes and annual maintenance, also resumed LNG shipments, according to the EIA.

On the other side, working gas in storage was 3,460 Bcf as of December 25, 2020, according to EIA estimates. Stocks were 251 Bcf higher than last year at this time, and 206 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,254 Bcf.

At 3,460 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range, which clearly indicates that the inventory is in a comfortable situation.