EIA：下调2021年全球石油需求增长预期

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价1月14日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在其1月短期能源展望(STEO)中预计,2021年全球石油需求预计将增长560万桶/天，至9777万桶/天，较2020年12月预估的9800万桶/天低20万桶左右。2020年全球石油需求平均为9220万桶/天，比2019年减少900万桶/天。

EIA预计，全球石油需求将在2022年下半年回到疫情爆发前的水平，2022年的平均需求为10108万桶/天，较2021年增长330万桶/天。

尽管EIA下调了2021年全球石油需求预测，但将布伦特(Brent)原油的平均预期上调了4美元/桶。EIA预计，2021年和2022年布伦特原油现货价格平均将为每桶53美元，而2020年的平均价格为每桶42美元。在去年12月的STEO中，EIA预计2021年布伦特原油平均价格为49美元/桶。

根据EIA的数据，2021年WTI原油价格将比布伦特原油平均价格低3美元/桶，2022年将比布伦特原油平均价格低4美元/桶。美国原油产量从2019年的创纪录水平1220万桶/天，下降至2020年的1130万桶/天，预计今年的平均年产量将进一步下降至1110万桶/天，但到2022年将上升至1150万桶/天。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

EIA Lowers 2021 Global Oil Demand Growth Estimate

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 compared to the 2020 low of 92.2 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest estimate, with the growth forecast now around 200,000 bpd lower compared to last month’s outlook.

In its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels to average 97.77 million bpd this year, down from the December STEO estimate of 98 million bpd.

For 2020, global oil demand averaged 92.2 million bpd, down by 9.0 million bpd from 2019. The 2020 estimate is also lower compared to EIA’s December forecast of 92.38 million bpd.

According to EIA’s latest estimates published in the January STEO this week, global oil demand will return to the pre-pandemic level in the second half of 2022, with the average 2022 demand at 101.08 million bpd, which would be growth of 3.3 million bpd compared to this year.

While the EIA cut its global oil demand forecast for 2021, it raised by $4 per barrel its average Brent Crude forecast for this year. The EIA now expects Brent crude oil spot prices to average $53 per barrel in both 2021 and 2022 compared with an average of $42 a barrel in 2020. In the December STEO, the EIA expected Brent prices to average $49 a barrel in 2021.

WTI Crude oil prices will average about $3 a barrel less than Brent prices in 2021 and $4 per barrel less than Brent in 2022, according to the EIA.

For U.S. crude oil production, EIA expects output to have declined from the record level of 12.2 million bpd in 2019 to 11.3 million bpd in 2020. Average annual production is seen further down to 11.1 million bpd this year, before rising to 11.5 million bpd in 2022.