|
| 2021-01-20 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
 |
 |
石化新闻 |
|
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网1月15日消息：美国能源信息署在一份报告中表示，欧佩克2020年原油出口收入可能降至3230亿美元，并指出这将是18年来的最低水平。 该机构补充称，2019年的石油收入为5950亿美元。 欧佩克2020年石油总收入中的大份额来自该组织最大出口国沙特阿拉伯。2019年沙特阿拉伯的石油收入总额为2020亿美元，超过总收入的三分之一，但2020年收入像其他欧佩克出口国一样受到疫情严重打击。 EIA警告称，石油收入下降将对欧佩克经济体产生强烈的负面影响。 该机构表示:“收入的减少可能会损害成员国的财政预算，这些国家严重依赖石油销售来进口商品、资助社会项目和支持公共服务。” 然而，欧佩克本身对近期的前景持谨慎乐观态度。尽管存在巨额赤字，且支撑预算的贷款激增，但欧佩克预计石油需求今年将开始复苏。 欧佩克在其最新月度石油市场报告中称，今年石油需求将增加590万桶/天，达到2590万桶/天。亚洲经济体亦是最大推动因素，其原油日需求量将比2020年增加330万桶/天。 尽管疫情肆虐，该组织对北美的需求趋势相当乐观，并指出：“包括汽油在内的运输燃料的复苏还与劳动力市场和汽油零售价格的发展有关。当前前景假设的两个变量都将开始回升。” 但对欧洲石油需求的前景不太乐观，因为它指出，欧洲大陆正在努力控制疫情的蔓延，而封锁已经削弱了石油需求。 冯娟 摘译自 油价网 原文如下： OPEC Oil Revenues Could Slump To 18-Year Low OPEC’s crude oil export revenues for 2020 could decline to $323 billion, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a new report, noting that this would be the lowest revenue level in 18 years. This would compare to $595 billion in oil revenues for 2019, the authority added. Unsurprisingly, the biggest chunk of OPEC’s collective oil revenues for 2020 will be for Saudi Arabia as the biggest exporter in the cartel. For 2019, Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues totaled $202 billion—more than a third of the total—but last year’s revenues will be hit by the pandemic like those of its fellow OPEC exporters. Like other forecasters, the EIA warned the lower oil revenues will have a strong negative impact on OPEC economies. “The decrease in revenues could be detrimental to member countries’ fiscal budgets, which rely heavily on oil sales to import goods, fund social programs, and support public services,” the authority said. OPEC itself is guardedly optimistic about the immediate future, however. Despite substantial deficits and a surge in loans to prop up budgets, the cartel expects oil demand to begin recovering this year. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the cartel forecast oil demand this year to rise by 5.9 million bpd, to reach 25.9 million bpd. The biggest drivers, again, would be Asian economies, where demand is seen jumping by 3.3 million bpd from 2020 when OPEC estimated it had fallen by as much as 9.8 million bpd. The group was rather upbeat on demand trends in North America, despite the raging pandemic, noting that “The recovery in transportation fuels, including gasoline, is additionally linked to developments in the labour market and gasoline retail prices. The current outlook assumes a respectable recovery in both variables.” Its outlook for European oil demand was less upbeat, as it noted the continent’s struggle to contain the spread of infection and the lockdowns that have sapped oil demand. |
